동아시아 지역아키텍처 재설계의 국제정치경제: 다층화·복합화·분화의 삼중 동학
The Political Economy of Renegotiating the Regional Architecture in East Asia: The Triple Dynamics of Multilayering, Complexity, and Divergence
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21세기 동아시아는 미국과 일본의 상대적 퇴조와 중국의 부상이라는 권력의 이중 전이(dual transition)가 동시에 진행됨에 따라 지역 아키텍처가 재설계되는 과정에 돌입했다. 동아시아 지역아키텍처 재설계 과정에는 다층화, 복합화, 분화의 세 가지 동학이 동시다발적으로 진행되는 특징이 나타나고 있다. 첫째, 미국과 중국이 지역아키텍처를 재설계하는 기본 축을 형성하는 가운데, 중국과 일본이 두 번째 축, 한국과 아세안이 세 번째 축을 형성하는 다층화가 나타나고 있다. 둘째, 이 과정에서 역내 국가들이 다양한 이슈들을 상호 연계하는 복합화가 진행되고 있다. 셋째, 진영 간 대립과 진영 내 협력을 기본 메커니즘으로 했던 냉전기와 달리, 역내 국가들이 선택을 서로 달리하는 정책 분화의 현상이 나타나고 있다. 본 연구는 이와 같은 다층화, 복합화, 분화의 메커니즘을 최근 중요한 이슈가 되고 있는 거대 FTA와 아시아인프라투자은행(Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank: AIIB)의 사례를 통해 분석한다.
Abstract
Dual transition, symbolized by the rise of China and the relative decline of the US and Japan, prompted East Asian countries to re-negotiate the regional architecture in the 21st century. Three features – multilayering, complexity, and diversification – emerged in the re-design process of the regional architecture. First, the re-design of the regional architecture is multilayered in that the US and China form the first tier with China/Japan and Korea/ASEAN at the second and the third tier, respectively. Second, the pattern of interaction among East Asian countries has become complex as they attempt to link various issues together. Third, in contrast to the cold war period, East Asian countries’ policy choices have diverged in dealing with the US and China.
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