핵무기 감축 효과 측면에서 북한의 영변 핵시설 폐기안 평가

Abstract

This paper evaluates the proposal by North Korea to dismantle nuclear facilities at Yongbyun Scientific Research Center, suggested at the 2019 United States-North Korea Hanoi Summit. For evaluation, this paper classifies the nuclear facilities, which have existed or have been presumed to exist at there, into the four groups: plutonium weapon-related facilities; uranium weapon-related facilities; hydrogen weapon-related facilities; and other/common facilities since North Korea has not yet specified exactly which facilities in Yongbyon would be dismantled. This paper evaluates the dismantling of the core nuclear facilities in each facility group in terms of the expected reduction in the future North Korea's nuclear weapon inventory and strategic meaning. Facilities with difficulty in quantitative assessment are qualitatively evaluated for their strategic significance in North Korea’s denuclearization. The evaluation results show that dismantling of the core nuclear facilities, which include 5MWe research reactor, radiochemistry laboratory, uranium enrichment facility, UF6 production facility, IRT-2000 research reactor, Li-6 enrichment facility, tritium extraction facility, could cease North Korea's future production of 3~4 nuclear weapons with yield of 20kt TNT. In addition, from the mid- and long-term viewpoints, it could depreciate the strategic values of the North Korea's existing nuclear weapons due to disabling their refurbishment.