트럼프-시진핑 시기 미중경쟁: 탈동조화 경제안보전략의 한계와 중간국가의 부상
US-China Competition during Trump-Xi Jinping Era: Limits of Economic Statecraft of Decoupling and the Rise of In-between Powers
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트럼프-시진핑 시기 본격화된 미중경쟁의 체제적인 성격은 무엇인가? 본 연구는 ‘미중경쟁체제(G2C System)’를 분석개념으로 제시하고 트럼프-시진핑 시기 미중관계의 특성을 이론적, 경험적 시각에서 분석한다. 본 연구의 핵심 주장은 세 가지다. 첫째, 미중경쟁은 탈냉전 이후 심화되어 온 복합적 상호의존의 제한적 탈동조화라는 점에서 미소 냉전체제와 상이하다. 둘째, 트럼프-시진핑 시기 무역, 기술, 규범 등 탈동조화를 위한 경제안보전략(economic statecraft)의 결과는 제한적이다. 셋째, 경제안보전략을 수단으로 하는 미중경쟁은 미중 양국에 핵심이익이 중첩되어 있는 중간국가(in-between power)의 기능과 위상에 따라 결정될 것이다. 마지막으로 미중경쟁과 중간국가가 상호작용하는 국제질서에서 한국의 외교안보 전략에 대한 함의를 검토한다.
Abstract
As the US-China conflict intensified during the Trump-Xi Jinping period, pessimism in US-China relations has prevailed. What is the systemic nature of the US-China competition? This study presents the ‘US-China competition system (G2C System)’ as an analytical concept and analyzes the characteristics of the US-China relationship from a theoretical and empirical perspective. There are three main arguments in this study. First, the US-China competition is different from the US-China Cold War system in that it is a limited decoupling of complex interdependence that has intensified since the post-Cold War. Second, the results of economic statecraft for decoupling trade, technology and norms during the Trump-Xi Jinping period are limited. Third, the US-China competition as a means of economic and security strategy will expand the function and status of in-between powers, where the core interests of the US and China overlap.
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