MAI 실패 이후 국제투자협정의 전개와 다자간투자협정의 전망
The Evolution of International Investment Agreements since the Failure of the MAI and Prospects of a Multilateral Investment Agreement
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MAI 실패 이후 국제투자협정의 전개와 다자간투자협정의 전망 본 논문은 OECD에서 진행되었던 다자간투자협정(MAI) 협상의 실패 이후 국제투자협정의 전개 양상을 살펴보고, 최근 그 필요성의 주장이 다시 제기되고 있는 다자간투자협정의 실현 가능성에 대해 고찰하고 있다. MAI 협상이 진행되었던 1990년대 중･후반과 비교하여 외국인직접투자의 규모는 크게 확대되었고, 양자간 및 지역차원 투자협정들의 네트워크의 조밀도는 크게 심화되었다. 특히 최근에는 환태평양경제동반자협정 등과 같은 메가 지역주의의 출현과 병행하여 투자협정의 지역주의화와 거대화의 양상이 목격되고 있다. 이러한 진행 상황들을 근거로 다자간투자협정의 추진 배경이 충분히 성숙되었다는 것이 최근 제기되고 있는 다자간투자협정 주장의 요체이다. 다자간투자협정은 투자자의 국적에 따른 차별적 대우를 시정하고, 투자협정의 복잡한 네트워크를 단순화시킴으로서 투자환경의 투명성과 예측가능성을 제고할 수 있다. 그러나 이러한 필요성에도 불구하고, 투자보호와 투자자유화 문제를 모두 포함하는 포괄적인 투자협정이 다자간투자협정의 모델이 되는 경우 그 실현 가능성은 아직까지는 높다고 보기 어렵다. 투자의 설립 단계에서의 내국민대우의 부여, 광범위한 이행의무의 금지 등과 같은 투자자유화 관련 이슈에 있어 선진국과 개도국간의 입장 차이는 여전히 수렴되지 못하고 있다. 지난 10여년간 포괄적 투자협정이 FTA와 결합하여 세계적으로 확산되는 양상을 보여왔다. 그러나 별도의 협정으로서 포괄적 성격의 투자협정이 체결된 경우는 극소수에 불과할 뿐이다. 즉 FTA와 분리하면 포괄적 성격의 투자협정의 추진 배경은 MAI 협상 시기에 비해 결코 성숙되었다고 볼 수는 없다. 투자협정 만을 놓고 별도의 협상을 하는 경우 협상국들간에 이익의 균형을 찾는 것이 쉽지 않다. MAI 협상에서 경험한 바와 같이 선진국들간에도 투자협정 협상에서 이익의 균형은 도출되기 어렵다. 다자간투자협정의 실현 가능성 문제를 고려할 때 2원적 접근이 적절할 것으로 보인다. 1단계는 투자보호에 관한 다자간투자협정을 추진하는 것이다. 투자보호 분야에서는 세계의 투자협정들이 고수준의 협정 내용에 상당히 수렴하고 있어 다자간협정의 실현 가능성이 상대적으로 높다. 2단계는 투자자유화와 포괄적인 이행의무의 금지 등과 같이 무역정책과 연계성이 큰 이슈만을 취급하는 다자간투자협정을 WTO에서 추진하는 것이다. 현실성을 고려할 때 복수국가협정으로 출발하여 추후 다자협정으로의 편입을 모색하는 것이 적절할 것이다.
Abstract
The Evolution of International Investment Agreements since the Failure of the MAI and Prospects of a Multilateral Investment Agreement This paper examines the developments of international investment agreements since the failure of the MAI negotiations at the OECD and explores the feasibility of multilateral investment agreement, the debate over which is recently re-observed. Foreign direct investment has grown so substantial and the network of bilateral and regional investment agreements have become extremely complex. The rise of regionalism in investment rule-making has reached a new level with the negotiations of Mega-Regionals such as the Transpacific Partnership. Building on those progresses made, proponents argues that the time is ripe to move ahead with the establishment of multilateral framework for managing international investment flows. A multilateral investment agreement can reduce discriminations among countries and enhance transparency and predictability by replacing the complex net of existing investment agreements. Despite clear necessity, its feasibility is still not so high as long as investment liberalization-related issues are proposed to be covered by the agreement. Developing countries still resist the applications of national treatment in the pre-establishment phase and the prohibitions of wide range of performance requirements. Comprehensive investment agreement including both investment protection and liberalization rules has increasingly been incorporated into FTAs over the past 10 years. However, stand-alone comprehensive investment agreement has been not so successful. When a comprehensive investment agreement is negotiated separately, balance of interest is difficult to be achieved even among developed counties as we have seen in the MAI negotiations. This paper proposes a two-step approach towards a multilateral investment agreement. The first step is to forge a multilateral investment protection agreement. Its feasibility seems relatively high when we look at the converging trend towards high standard agreements in the area of investment protection. The second step is to establish a multilateral agreement on the investment issues which have trade-policy character, such as investment liberalization and prohibition of performance requirements, within the framework of the WTO. It seems plausible to start with a plurilateral agreement and switch it to a multilateral agreement at a later stage.
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