경찰 순찰활동의 범죄예방 효과에 대한 메타분석
Meta-Analysis on the Crime Deterrence Effects of Police Patrol
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본 연구는 경찰 순찰활동의 범죄예방 효과를 분석한 국내외 실증연구들을 대상으로 메타분석을 시행하였다. 특히, 준실험설계방법을 설정한 선행연구들에서 확인된 실험 및 통제지역의 순찰 전후의 범죄발생건수를 활용하여 단일의 효과크기(effect size)를 도출하고자 하였다. 먼저 오즈비(odds ratio)를 활용하여 전체연구들의 통합효과(pooled effect)를 분석하고, 이후 순찰유형 및 방법 그리고 범죄유형에 따른 차별적 효과를 분석하였다. 분석결과, 본 연구는 순찰활동의 통합된 단일의 범죄감소 효과를 10.4%로 추정하였으나, 그 효과는 통계적으로 유의미하지 않은 것으로 확인하였다. 하지만, 순찰활동의 방법 및 범죄유형에 따른 차별적 범죄감소 효과에 대해서는 통계적으로 유의미한 효과를 확인하였다. 먼저, 도보 및 차량순찰을 병행하거나 차량순찰만을 시행하는 것보다 도보순찰만을 분리하여 독립적으로 실시하는 것이 더 높은 범죄예방 효과를 나타냄을 확인하였다. 뿐만 아니라, 단순히 순찰빈도를 높이는 것보다 피의자 체포나 교통단속 등과 같은 적극적 경찰활동을 수반하는 순찰의 범죄예방 효과가 더 높은 것을 확인하였다. 한편, 재산범죄보다는 폭력범죄에 대한 순찰의 예방효과가 더 높은 것을 확인하였다. 도출된 결과는 효율적이며 증거에 기초한(evidence-based) 순찰활동을 전개하는데 있어 실증적 근거로 활용될 수 있다.
Abstract
Using a meta-analysis technique, this study examined the crime deterrence effects of police patrol by analyzing the results of several empirical studies. In particular, this study reviewed previous studies with quasi-experimental designs providing numbers of crimes before and after the intervention of patrol in experiment and control areas and eventually produced a single effect size. Using odds ratios, this study analyzed not only a pooled effect across all studies, but also differing effects based on patrol and crime types. As a result, this study identified that treatment of police patrol was found to have a 10.4.% crime reduction effect in general, but the effect was not statistically significant. However, this study found statistically significant effects of police patrol with different methods and crime types. First, this study found that performing either foot or vehicle patrol independently, rather than in combination, produced a larger effect size. In addition, this study estimated that any patrol accompanied by additional proactive police activities, including arrest, stop-and-frisk, and traffic control, was more effective in preventing crime than patrols without such activities. Finally, it was found that the effect size for violent crime was larger than that of property crime. These results could be used as an empirical basis for performing efficient and evidence-based patrol activities.
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