금연이 흡연자의 후생을 증가시키는가?
Does Quitting Smoking Improve Smokers' Welfare?
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본 논문은 2006년, 2010년, 2012년의 사회조사 횡단면자료의 금연행위 변수와 주관적 생활만족도 수치를 사용해서 금연미시도자와 금연시도자(금연성공자 및 금연시도-실패자), 금연성공자와 현재흡연자 간에 후생수준을 비교함으로써 흡연에서 금연성공에 이르는 과정에서의 후생변화를 평가하였다. 분석결과 한편으로는 예측된 금연미시도자가 금연시도자에 비해 후생수준이 높았으나 다른 한편으로는 예측된 금연성공자가 금연미성공자에 비해 후생수준이 높았다. 이러한 결과는 금연미시도의 흡연 상황에서 금연시도로의 전환에 따라 후생수준이 감소하지만 금연에 성공하는 경우 후생수준이 회복될 수 있다는 것을 의미한다. 또한 금연미시도자는 시간적 비일관성 모형보다는 합리적 흡연모형을 따라 흡연행위를 하고 있다는 것을 의미하며 따라서 정부의 흡연규제강화는 금연미시도자의 후생을 악화시키는 쪽으로 작용할 것이다. 금연시도-실패자는 시간적 비일관성의 자기통제문제를 가질 수도 있고 자신에게 보다 더 적절한 금연방법을 찾고 있는 합리적 흡연자일수도 있으나 어떤 모형을 따르든 본 연구의 결과는 궁극적으로 금연시도-실패에서 금연성공으로의 전환은 후생을 증가하도록 함을 시사한다.
Abstract
This paper examines the impact of quitting smoking on smokers' welfare. The results of employing the two-step estimation method showed that the subjective well-being of predicted smokers who have never attempted to quit was higher than that of those who have attempted to quit. However, the subjective well-being of those predicted to successfully quit was higher than that of remaining predicted smokers. These results imply that smokers' welfare initially decreases as they attempt to quit but can eventually be recovered once they succeed in quitting. It appears that smokers who never attempt to quit are following rational rather than time inconsistent behavior. Thus, stronger cigarette control policies such as higher cigarette taxes will reduce their welfare. Our results also imply that regardless of whether smokers follow rational or time inconsistent behavior, the subjective well-being of smokers who have failed to quit will ultimately increase once they succeed in the end.
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