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사후과잉확신편향에 관한 연구 －2008 미국 대선을 중심으로

A Study on the Hindsight Bias -Focus on 2008 U.S. Presidential Election-

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한국정치커뮤니케이션학회 (Korean Political Communication Association)|2010.06|정치커뮤니케이션연구 (Journal of Political Communication)|제17호|pp. 249-285|DOI 10.35731/kpca.2010..17.007

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참고문헌

키워드

확증편향매개효과mediation effect책임감accountabilityconfirmation biasdebiasinghindsight bias사후과잉확신편향

초록

본 연구는 2008년 미국대선결과를 알려준 후에 피험자들의 확증편향과 사후과잉확신편향이 존재하는지를 알아보았다. 더불어 책임감여부가 확증편향을 감소시키고 이러한 확증편향의 감소가 사후과잉확신편향을 감소시키는 매개효과가 존재하는지를 조사하였다. 여기에서 확증편향이란 현재의 신념(의사결정포함)을 반대하는 정보보다는 지지하는 정보를 주로 탐색하는 경향을 말하며 사후과잉확신편향이란 결과를 알고 있는 경우에 결과를 몰랐던 과거에도 이러한 결과를 알고 있었다고 지속적으로 과장하는 경향을 의미한다. 이러한 확증편향과 사후과잉확신편향은 매우 강력하게 작용하고 의사결정의 효율성과 정확성을 왜곡시킬 가능성이 있기 때문에 이들을 감소시키는 방법을 개발하는 것은 중요한 과제라고 할 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 이들 두 편향을 감소시키는 방법으로 책임감을 도입하였다. 피험자는 학부학생들로 모두 150명이 실험에 참가하였고 이 중 133명의 자료를 분석에 활용하였다. 실험결과 책임감집단과 비책임감집단의 모두에서 확증편향이 나타났으나 책임감집단의 확증편향이 비책임감집단의 확증편향보다 적게 나타났다. 또한 비책임감집단의 사후과잉확신편향은 책임감집단의 그것보다 크게 나타났다. 중요한 결론으로는 회귀분석결과 책임감의 부여여부가 사후과잉확신편향에 미치는 영향에 확증편향이 매개작용을 하는 것으로 밝혀졌다. 향후의 연구들은 본 연구에서 제시한 매개변수인 책임감 이외의 다른 매개변수의 개발에 관하여 연구를 하면 유용한 연구가 될 것이다.

Abstract

This study investigated whether confirmation bias and hindsight bias of participants existed after participants were heard of the result of 2008 US presidential election. And it also investigated the mediation effect in which accountability reduced confirmation bias which in turn reduced hindsight bias. Confirmation bias is the tendency to search for the informations supporting than contradicting the current belief. Hindsight bias is the inclination that people consistently exaggerate they had known it all along from the past once they had known the result. Developing debiasing mechanism to reduce the confirmation and hindsight bias is very important because they are so strong and may distort the efficiency and accuracy of decision making. This paper introiduced accountability to debias two biases. Participants are 133 undergraduate students. As a result of the experiment, confirmation bias existed in both accountability and non-accountability groups but confirmation bias of non-accountability group is greater than that of accountability group. Also hindsight bias of non-accountability group is greater than that of accountability group. Most important, in regression analysis confirmation bias mediated the effect of accountability on hindsight bias.

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