위험사건의 발생확률 판단과 후견지명편향 - 가정설계에서 기대와 결과 간의 불일치 효과 -
Judgment of Likelihood of Risky Events and Hindsight Bias: The effects of expectation-outcome inconsistency in hypothetical design
0
조회
0
다운로드
4
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
후견지명편향은 사건의 결과를 알고 나서 자신이 처음부터 이 결과를 예측하였던 것처럼 믿는 경향성을 말한다. 본 연구는 가정설계의 후견지명편향에서 발생하는 위험사건의 발생확률에 대한 판단자의 기대와 결과 간의 불일치 효과를 검증하기 위해 수행되었다. 두 실험에서 참여자들은 위험이 발생했다는 정보를 제시받거나(후견지명편향 집단) 또는 결과 정보를 제시받지 않았다(통제 집단). 실험 1은 선행 경험에 의해 위험의 발생 확률에 대한 지각에서 분명한 차이를 보이는 두 위험 사건을 참여자 내 설계로 제시하였다. 낮은 발생확률을 기대하였던 위험사건(유전질환)에서는 후견지명편향이 발생하였지만 높은 발생확률을 기대하였던 위험사건(독극물 유출)에서는 나타나지 않았다. 실험 2에서는 동일한 위험사건(독감 바이러스)을 사용하여 두 집단의 참여자에게 상이한 위험 발생가능성 정보를 명시적으로 제시하였다. 실험 1과 마찬가지로 판단자의 기대와 결과가 불일치하는 조건에서만 후견지명편향이 발견되었다. 인지 재구성이론들 중 이해 모형으로 연구결과를 해석하고 위험판단에서 연구결과가 지니는 함의에 대해 논의하였다.
Abstract
Hindsight bias refers to a tendency of people to falsely believe that they would have correctly predicted the outcome of an event once it is known. The aim of this study was to examine the effects of inconsistency between judge's expectation of likelihood of risky events and outcome on hindsight bias in hypothetical design. In two experiments, subjects were provided with information that risk event occurred(hindsight bias group), or were presented with no outcome information(control group). Experiment 1 presented, using within-subject design, two risky events in which judge's expectations of their likelihoods differed depending on prior experience. Hindsight bias occurred in risky events(genetic disorder) with low expected likelihood but not in risky events(toxic substance spill) with high expected likelihood. In experiment 2, two groups were explicitly presented different likelihood informations about one same risky event(influenza virus). As in experiment 1, hindsight bias was observed only in a condition of low expected likelihood. Results were interpreted with the sense making model, a cognitive reconstruction model and further implications in risk judgment were discussed.
참고문헌 (29)
- Arkes, H. R., "Hindsight bias among physicians weighing the likelihood of diagnoses", Journal of Applied Psychology, 66(2), pp.252~254 (1981)
- Ash, I.V., "Surprise, memory, and retrospective judgment making: Testing cognitive reconstruction theories of hindsight bias effect", Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 35(4), pp.916~933 (2009)
- Blank, H., "How many hindsight biases are there?", Cognition, 106, pp.1408~1440 (2008)
- Brown, R. S., "The effects of hindsight bias and causal attribution on human response to environmental events", Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 24, pp.661~674 (1994)
- Fischhoff, B., "Hindsight foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty", Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 1, pp.288~299 (1975)
- Fischhoff, B., "Perceived informativeness of facts", Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 3, pp.349~358 (1977)
- Fischhoff, B., ""I knew it would happen." Remembered probabilities of once-future things", Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 13, pp.1~16 (1975)
- Fisher, C. D., "Why don't they learn?" (2008), works.bepress.com
- Harley, E. M., "Hindsight Bias In Legal Decision Making", Social Cognition, 25(Special Issue), pp.48~63 (2007)
- Hawkins, S. A., "Hindsight: Biased judgement of the past events after the outcomes are known", Psychological Bulletin, 107, pp.311~327 (1990)
- Hell, W., "Hindsight bias: An interaction of automatic and motivational factors?", Memory and Cognition, 6, pp.533~538 (1988)
- Hertwig, R., "Hindsight bias: How knowledge and heuristics affect our reconstruction of the past", Memory, 13, pp.357~377 (2003)
- Hertwig, R., "The reiteration effect in hindsight bias", Psychological Review, 104, pp.194~202 (1997)
- Hoch, S. J., "Outcome feedback: Hindsight and information", Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 15, pp.605~619 (1989)
- Hoffrage, U., "Research on hindsight bias: A rich past, a productive present, and a challenging future", Memory, 11, pp.329~335 (2003)
- Hoffrage, U., "Hindsight bias: A by-product of knowledge updating?", Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 26(3), pp.566~581 (2000)
- Menec, V. H., "Observers' reactions to genetic testing : The role of hindsight bias and judgment of responsibility", Journal of Applied social Psychology, 30, pp.1670~1690 (2000)
- Müller, M.A., "The role of surprise in hindsight bias-A cognitive explanation for reduced and reversed hindsight bias", Social Cognition, 25, pp.165~184 (2007)
- Nestler, S., "An integrative lens model approach to bias and accuracy in human inferences : Hindsight effects and knowledge updating in personality judgments", Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 103(4), pp.689~717 (2012)
- Nisbett, R. E., "The geography of thought: How Asians and Westerners think differently and why" (2003), Free Press
- Pezzo, M.V., "Surprise, defence, or making sense: What removes hindsight bias?", Memory, 11, pp.421~441 (2003)
- Pohl, R., "No reduction in hindsight bias after complete information and repeated testing", Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 67(1), pp.49~58 (1996)
- Pohl, R., "SARA: A cognitive process model to simulate the anchoring effect and hindsight bias", Memory, 11, pp.337~356 (2003)
- Schkada, D. A., "Expectation-outcome consistency and hindsight bias", Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 49, pp.105~123 (1991)
- Schwarz, S., "Strength of hindsight bias as a consequence of meta-cognitions", Memory, 11, pp.395~410 (2003)
- Stahlberg, D., "Hindsight bias: Impaired memory of biased reconstruction?, In European review of social psychology (Vol.8)", pp.106~132 (1998), Wiley
- Tversky, A., "Availability : A heuristic for judging frequency and probability", Cognitive Psychology, 5, pp.207~232 (1973)
- Tversky, A., "Judgement under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases", Science, 185, pp.1124~1131 (1974)
- Werth, L., "Certainty and uncertainty: The two faces of the hindsight bias", Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 87, pp.323~341 (2002)