악마의 변호기법을 이용한 후판단편파의 감소
Debiasing the Hindsight Bias Through the Devil's Advocacy
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참고문헌
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초록
본 연구에서는 의사결정시에 확증편파와 후판단편파가 존재하는지와 정보탐색 시에 주어진 결과정보를 지지하는 정보를 더 중요하게 평가하는지를 조사하였다. 또한 악마의 변호기법이 후판단편파에 영향을 미치는 과정에 확증편파가 매개작용을 하는지도 조사하였다. 확증편파는 결과정보가 주어지는 경우에 이를 지지하는 정보를 주로 탐색하는 편파적 정보탐색을 의미하고 후판단편파는 결과정보를 알고 있는 경우에 이를 처음부터 알고 있었다고 지속적으로 과장하는 경향을 의미한다. 연구방법은 실험실실험이고 실험상황은 계속기업에 관한 판단이며 피험자는 학생을 선정하였다. 연구결과 확증편파와 후판단편파의 존재를 확인하였고 악마의 변호기법이 확증편파와 후판단편파를 감소시킨다는 사실을 확인하였다. 또한 피험자들은 결과정보를 지지하는 정보를 더 중요하게 평가한다는 사실도 확인하였다. 본 연구의 중요한 결론은 악마의 변호기법이 후판단편파에 미치는 영향에 확증편파가 매개변수로 작용한다는 것이다. 이는 악마의 변호기법이 확증편파를 감소시키고 이는 다시 후판단편파를 감소시킨다는 것을 의미한다. 향후의 연구에서 확증편파 이외의 매개변수의 개발이 이루어지면 그 의의가 크다 할 것이다.
Abstract
Research has shown that people prefer supporting over conflicting information, and human judgment falls prey to the hindsight bias. The effective mechanism to debias these two biases is needed since they are detrimental to the higher quality decisions. This study used the devil's advocacy technique to debias the two biases. The results of this research has suggested a few implications. First, subjects showed the confirmation bias and the hindsight bias. And the devil's advocacy technique effectively reduced these two biases. Second, Evidences congruent with a negative(positive) outcome were rated as more important by subjects provided with negative(positive) outcome information. Third, the confirmation bias has been shown to mediate the effect of the devil's advocacy on the hindsight bias: the devil's advocacy group showed less confirmation bias and in turn, less hindsight bias. In subsequent researches, the development of mediators other than ones of this study is needed for the effective reduction of the hindsight bias and the clarification of the decision making process.
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