Perceptions of election poll reporting and their effects on the support for election poll censorship: Structural equation models for mediating roles of the third person effect, importance of electability, and voting behavior and moderating role of education level
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This study focuses on importance of perceptions of election polls published bymass media and their effects on the support for election poll censorship. Twohypothetical models using SEM technique are tested against survey data from a sampleof 422 residents of Ulsan metropolitan city in S. Korea. One model predicts that thebiased media perception affects the support for censorship through mediating thirdperson effect and sincere vote, while the other model predicts that horse racereporting affects the support for censorship through mediating third person effect andstrategic vote. Two models fit well with the data. In both models the third personeffects were found to play key roles in the mediation processes. We discussed severalunexpected findings from the data analysis and their implications for the KoreanElection Act, Article 108 by which the media publication of election poll results isprohibited during the last 6 days before the election date.
Abstract
This study focuses on importance of perceptions of election polls published bymass media and their effects on the support for election poll censorship. Twohypothetical models using SEM technique are tested against survey data from a sampleof 422 residents of Ulsan metropolitan city in S. Korea. One model predicts that thebiased media perception affects the support for censorship through mediating thirdperson effect and sincere vote, while the other model predicts that horse racereporting affects the support for censorship through mediating third person effect andstrategic vote. Two models fit well with the data. In both models the third personeffects were found to play key roles in the mediation processes. We discussed severalunexpected findings from the data analysis and their implications for the KoreanElection Act, Article 108 by which the media publication of election poll results isprohibited during the last 6 days before the election date.
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