경영환경 불확실성과 실제이익조정
Business Environment Uncertainty and Real Earnings Management
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초록
오늘날의 기업 환경은 역동적으로 급변하고 있으며 예측하기 어려워 불확실성에 놓여있다. 이러한 경영환경의 불확실성은 기업의 위험이나 비용을 증가시킴으로써 기업의 성과에 부정적인 영향을 미치기 때문에 경영자의 입장에서는 이를 완화시키기 위해 이익조정 유인이 존재한다. 본 연구는 기업이 경영환경 불확실성에 처해 있을 때 경영자의 실제이익조정 수준이 어떻게 변화하는지를 살펴보았다. 2000년부터 2016년까지 유가증권 상장기업(KOSPI)을 대상으로 하여 분석한 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 기업이 경영환경 불확실성에 처해 있을 때 기업의 실제이익조정 수준이 증가하였다. 이는 경영자가 경영환경 불확실성의 부정적인 영향을 인지하고 이를 완화시키기 위해 실제이익조정을 수행함을 의미한다. 둘째, 산업 내 경쟁정도가 높을수록 경영환경 불확실성과 실제이익조정 간 양(+)의 관계가 강화됨을 확인하였다. 이는 산업 내 경쟁정도가 경영환경 불확실성이 가져오는 부정적 영향을 더 강화시키기에, 경영자들은 산업 내 경쟁이 심할 때 경영환경 불확실성에 대한 실제이익조정을 더 강화시키는 것으로 해석된다. 본 연구는 경영환경 불확실성이 경영자의 실제이익조정 수준을 증가시키는 유인임을 확인하고 이를 강화시키는 요인 또한 살펴보았다는 공헌점이 있다. 하지만 기업에 직간접적으로 영향을 미치는 환경적 요소들의 집합체인 경영환경의 불확실성을 기업성과의 일부분인 매출액과 주식수익률의 변동성으로 측정하였다는 점에서는 한계점을 갖는다.
Abstract
Business environment is getting dynamic, unpredictable and uncertain. Since uncertainties in the business environment can have a negative effect on the value of the firm, as revealed in prior studies, managers have incentive to manipulate earnings upwardly in order to mitigate such negative impact of business environment uncertainty. In this paper, we examine whether uncertainties in the business environment is associated with firms’ real activities-based earnings management(REM). Using companies listed on the Korean Stock Exchange(KSE) from 2000 to 2016, we find the empirical results as follows. First, environmental uncertainty is positively associated with the real earnings management. This implies that managers are aware of the negative effects of business uncertainties and manipulate earnings upward by managing operating activities. Second, the higher the degree of competition in the industry, the stronger the relationship between environmental uncertainty and the level of real earnings management. It is interpreted that since the industry competition exacerbates the negative impact of the environmental uncertainty, the industry competition strengthens the incentive of real earnings management of the firm which faces uncertainty of the business environment. This study contributes to the literature, showing evidence that the environmental uncertainty is the determinant of the manager's real earnings management level, and examining factors to strengthen the relationship between uncertainties in the business environment and manager’s real earnings management level. However, sales volatility and stock return volatility, proxies for the environmental uncertainty, have a limitation in that those can not capture comprehensive uncertainties of business environment.
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