종단면지수를 이용한 부동산관리비의 시계열예측 모형

Abstract

Recently, increasing retail rents stimulated significant outgoing costs for retail real estate. Therefore,tenants seem to prefer retail unit to pay less outgoing costs than they want. Outgoing cost is linked to retail rent. Outgoing cost is correlated with net asking rents. Especially, the outgoing cost is important component of cash flow statements for retail property. Accurate forecast of outgoing costs at the building level is very useful for investors, developers, and real estate managers. The purpose of this study is to investigate the patterns of outgoing cost variation over time and to find models for forecasting future outgoing costs. This paper deals with an outgoing cost index. It applies mainly a time-series method –ARMA. This study models outgoing costs in South Korea using time series data. The source of the data used in this study is government statistics. Some outgoing costs series are used compiled by government. The outgoing cost index is used in this study. The index takes the value of 100 in 2005. This study adopted one methodology to forecast outgoing costs. The main results are summarized as follows: first, the ability of the ARMA(5, 1) model to predict correctly the direction in the changes of outgoing costs is very impressive. Second, the forecast model indicates that outgoing cost index shows a positive growth during the period from January 2004 to May 2012. Our results, compares to previous research, are not surprising because landlords are faced with taxes,energy prices, insurance, etc,and the cost to charge to each tenant.