감정평가가격의 평가편의(Appraisal Bias) 연구: 법원아파트경매자료를 이용하여
A Study of Appraisal Bias in Appraised Prices: Using Apartment Data of Court Auction
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초록
본 연구는 평가편의의 존재여부를 실증분석한 국내 첫 연구로서, 18개년(2005~ 2022년) 간의 법원 아파트경매자료의 감정가격과 국토교통부의 실거래가격 전수자료를 이용하여 감정평가가격에 평가편의가 존재하는지를 실증분석하였다. 분석결과, 우리나라의 아파트 법원경매 감정가격에는 평가편의가 존재한다고 보기 어렵고, 존재한다 하더라도 그 크기는 미미한 수준으로 나타났다. 그리고 편의발생원인에 대한 가설로서 감정평가사가 상승하는 시장에서 과소평가하고 하락하는 시장에서 과대평가 한다는 Quan and Quigley(1991)의 가설은 지지되는 결과를 얻었다.
Abstract
This study is the first study in Korea to analyze the existence of appraisal bias and empirically assess whether such appraisal bias exists in appraisal prices using apartment data from court auctions over 18 years (2005 to 2022), alongside actual transaction prices from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport. The results indicate that appraisal bias does not appear to be present in the appraisal prices of court auction apartments in Korea. Moreover, even if such bias exists, its magnitude is deemed insignificant. The study also supports the hypothesis proposed by Quan and Quigley (1991), suggesting that appraisers tend to underestimate in rising markets and overestimate in falling markets as a potential source of bias.
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