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国際通商政策の変化と日本の対外通商戦略‒CPTPP・RCEP協定を中心に‒

Changes in International Trade Policy and Japan’s Foreign Trade Strategy -Focus on CPTPP and RCEP Agreements-

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この小論ではグローバリゼーションと通商政策の潮流を踏まえた上で、グローバリゼーションと通商政策の視点からCPTPP協定とRCEP協定に対する日本の通商戦略について議論した。過去4年間アメリカの通商政策(トランプ政権)の変更はグローバリズムと自由貿易の潮流に大きな衝撃を与えた。新しく誕生したアメリカのバイデン政権の通商政策がどう変わるかによって、世界貿易ルールは変わる可能性もある。中国がCPTPP協定への関心を表明しているが、それほど歓迎するムードではないため、加盟は難しいであろう。また、アメリカのCPTPP協定への復帰を期待されており、中国を牽制する視点からその可能性は高い。CPTPP協定とRCEP協定が成立したことで、日本にとっては一定の貿易ルールができたことは大きな収穫である。特に日本は中国と韓国との自由貿易協定がなっかたので、RCEP協定を通じて共通の認識ができた。CPTPP協定とRCEP協定の運用上の整合性に欠如があるものの、日本にとって、中国と韓国は主な貿易相手国であり、サプライチェーンの視点からも非常に密接な関係にあることから、今後の貿易関係が改善されることが期待できる。

Abstract

In this essay, Japan’s trade strategy for the CPTPP and RCEP agreements was discussed from the perspective of globalization and trade policy, taking into account the trends in globalization and trade policy. Over the past four years, changes in US trade policy (the Trump administration) have had a major impact on globalism and the tide of free trade. World trade rules could change depending on how the newly born US Biden administration’s trade policy changes. China has expressed interest in the CPTPP agreement, but it will be difficult to join because it is not in a very welcoming mood. It also hopes that the United States will return to the CPTPP agreement, but it is highly likely from the perspective of restraining China. With the establishment of the CPTPP Agreement and the RCEP Agreement, it is a great harvest for Japan to have certain trade rules. In particular, Japan did not have a free trade agreement with China and South Korea, so a common understanding was gained through the RCEP agreement. Although there is a lack of operational consistency between the CPTPP Agreement and the RCEP Agreement, China and South Korea are major trading partners for Japan, and they are very closely related from a supply chain perspective. It can be expected that trade relations will improve.

참고문헌 (18)

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