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아베 정부와 전략적 다자주의의 부상: TPP/CPTPP 전략을 중심으로

The Emergence of Strategic Multilateralism in Japan: The Abe Administration's TPP and CPTPP Strategy

이승주
세종연구소 (The Sejong Institute)|2020.05|국가전략 (National Strategy)|제26권 제2호|pp. 97-121|DOI 10.35390/sejong.26.2.202005.004

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키워드

TPPCPTPP아베AbeRCEP전략적 다자주의Strategic Multilateralism
주제분류정치외교학

초록

이 연구는 아베 정부에서 진행된 일본 통상정책의 변화를 '전략적 다자주의' 의 부상이라는 맥락에서 설명한다. 아베 정부의 전략적 다자주의는 국내적 제약을 극복함으로써 'FTA 따라잡기'의 계기를 제공하고, 수준 높은 메기 FTA를 적극적으로 추진함으로써 역내 주요국가들의 '경쟁적 조정'(competitive adjustment)을 유발하여 지역 경제 질서의 재편을 촉진하는 다자 수준의 통상 전략을 의미한다. TPP 협상에서 대두되기 시작한 일본의 전략적 다자주의는 트럼프 행정부 등장 이후 CPTPP의 추진·타결·발효 과정에서 업그레이드 되었다. 트럼프 행정부의 TPP 탈퇴 결정이후 일본은 미국의 복귀를 지속적으로 설득하는 한편, CPTPP 협상을 신속하게 진행하는 양면 전략을 구사하였다. 일본은 상반된 입장을 가진 역내 국가들을 설득하여 CPTPP 협상 타결을 이끌어내는 등 아시아태평양 지역에서 미국 리더십의 공백을 메우는 전략적 다자주의의 모습을 보였다.

Abstract

The study explores the changes in Japan’s trade policy under the Abe administration in the context of the rise of “strategic multilateralism.” By effectively overcoming domestic constraints, the Abe administration’s strategic multilateralism has provided Japan with an opportunity to complete FTA catch-up, promote a high-quality mega-FTA, and prompted “competitive adjustment” of major regional countries, facilitating the redesigning of regional economic order. Japan’s strategic multilateralism, which began with the Abe government’s decision to participate in TPP negotiations, has been upgraded in the course of the CPTPP’s negotiations since the inauguration of the Trump administration. After the Trump administration’s decision to leave the TPP, Japan pursued a two-pronged strategy: Japan continued to persuade the U.S. to return to TPP while using expediting the CPTPP negotiations. Japan demonstrated strategic multilateralism by filling in the leadership gap voided by the U.S. in the Asia-Pacific and encouraging regional countries with potentially conflicting interests to reach a conclusion of the CPTPP negotiations.

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