공간자기상관을 고려한 도시성장모형의 개발과 대도시권 도시성장관리의 정책적 시사점
Building of Urban Growth Model Considering Spatial Autocorrelation for Urban Growth Management in Metropolitan Area
0
조회
0
다운로드
0
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
본 연구는 도시기본계획 등 도시성장관리정책의 개선점을 제시하기 위해 장래 시가화지역을 예측하였다. 과학적이고 합리적인 방법을 적용하여 장래 시가화지역을 예측하기 위해 공간자기상관의 문제가개선된 도시성장모형을 구축하여 활용하였다. 공간자기상관으로 인하여 발생할 수 있는 통계적 에러를개선하기 위해, 본 연구는 독립변수에 공간변수를 포함시켰고, 모형의 신뢰도에 영향을 주지 않는 범위에서 분석자료의 수를 샘플링하여 추정했다. 그 결과, 공간자기상관의 정도를 나타내는 moran’s I 계수도 양호해졌고, 전반적으로 모형의 설명력도 개선되었다. 장래 시가화지역 예측결과를 바탕으로 도시성장관리정책의 시사점을 제시하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 대도시와 주변지역을 동시에 고려하여 장래 토지수요를 추정해야 한다. 둘째, 장래 시가화지역의 규모, 위치, 개발시기를 결정할 때 합리적인 기준 또는 근거에 의해 이루어져야 한다.
Abstract
The main purposes of this study are to present a policy implications on current urban growth management through urban growth model reducing spatial autocorrelation error. This study adopted binary logistic regression model to generate maps on urban growth probability. To reduce spatial autocorrelation error in urban growth model. we estimated logistic regression model involved spatial coefficients in independent variables and reduced data size through random sampling. As estimation results, moran’s I which measured spatial autocorrelation was decreased considerably from 0.306 at full data set to 0.190 at sample data. In order to prove the rationality of the consolidated urban growth management, the future urban growth which illustrates location, time, and size of development is predicted by the urban growth prediction model. Based on these findings, this study emphasize on the importance of the consolidated urban growth management which consider metropolitan city and its hinterlands simultaneously in planning and policy makings. Furthermore, this study suggest two kinds of policy implications - land use regulation and urban planning. The land use regulation should be more flexible to the stage of urban development and development characteristics in order to attract more development in indigenous urban area. National planning act and other planning-related laws must be revised in order to control land development more smart. The higher level of land use planning institute such as METRO must be established in order to manage land development more effectively in the integrated manner.
참고문헌 (25)
- Allen, J., "Modeling and prediction of future urban growth in the Charleston region of South Carolina : a GIS-based integrated approac", Ecology and Society, 8(2) (2003)
- Allison, Paul D., "Logistic regression using the SAS System : Theory and application" (1999), SAS Institute
- Billé, A. G., "Spatial discrete choice and spatial limited dependent variable models : a review with an emphasis on the use in regional health economics", arXiv preprint arXiv:1302.2267, ~ (2013)
- Cheng, Jianquan, "Urban growth pattern modeling : A case study of Wuhan city, PR China", Landscape and Urban Planning, 62, pp.199~217 (2003)
- Clarke, K. C., "A self-modifying cellular automation model of historical urbanization in the San Francisco bay area", Environment and Planning B:Planning and Design, 24, pp.247~261 (1997)
- Hu, Z., "Modeling urban growth in Atlanta using logistic regression. Computers", Environment and Urban Systems, 31(6), pp.667~688 (2007)
- Hu, Zhiyong, "Modeling urban growth in Atlanta using logistic regression", Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 31, pp.667~688 (2007)
- Liang, Y., "Modeling urban growth in the middle basin of the Heihe river, Northwest China", Landscape Ecology, 29, pp.1725~1739 (2014)
- Luo, Jun, "Modeling spatial variation of urban growth patterns in Chinese cities: The case of Nanjing", Landscape and Urban Planning, 91, pp.51~64 (2009)
- Moghadam, H.S., "Spatiotemporal urbanization process in the megacity of Mumbai, India: A Markov chains cellular automata urban growth model", Applied Geography, 40, pp.140~149 (2013)
- Munshi, T., "Logistic regression and cellular automata-based modelling of retail, commercial and residential development in the city of Ahmedabad, India", Cities, 39, pp.68~86 (2014)
- Poelmans, Lien, "Detecting and modeling spatial patterns of urban sprawl in the Flanders-Burussels region (Belgium)", Landscape and Urban Planning, 93, pp.10~19 (2009)
- Poelmans, Lien, "Complexity and performance of urban expansion models", Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 34, pp.17~27 (2010)
- Puertas, O. L., "Assessing spatial dynamics of urban growth using an integrated land use model. Application in Santiago Metropolitan Area, 2010–2045", Land Use Policy, 38, pp.415~425 (2014)
- Shu, B., "Spatiotemporal variation analysis of driving forces of urban land spatial expansion using logistic regression : A case study of port towns in Taicang City, China", Habitat International, 43, pp.181~190 (2014)
- Yang, X., "Modeling urban growth and landscape changes in the Atlanta metropolitan area", International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 17(3), pp.463~488 (2003)
- Zeng, C., "Monitoring and modeling urban expansion-A spatially explicit and multi-scale perspective", Cities, 43, pp.92~103 (2015)
- 2020년 대구권 광역도시계획, "건설교통부", ~ (2005)
- 권창기, "대도시 광역도시권 설정과 권역별 공간 특성 비교", 국토연구, 52, pp.39~58 (2007), 국토연구원[DOI]
- 김재익, "도시성장예측모형을 활용한 개발제한구역의 효과측정", 국토계획, 43(3), pp.211~223 (2008), 대한국토·도시계획학회
- 김재익, "도시성장모형의 개발과 활용: 통합적 접근방법", 국토계획, 42(2), pp.31~48 (2007), 대한국토·도시계획학회
- 2020년 대구도시기본계획, "대구광역시", ~ (2007)
- 사공호상, "원격탐사와 GIS를 이용한 수도권 도시화지역 확산특성에 관한 연구", 국토연구, 40, pp.53~69 (2004), 국토연구원
- 정재준, "도시성장 분석 및 예측을 위한 셀룰라 오토마타 모델 개발", 국토계획, 37(1), pp.27~43 (2002), 대한국토·도시계획학회
- 최대식, "도시개발 시뮬레이션 모형을 이용한수도권 개발제한구역의 시가지확산 억제효과 평가", 국토계획, 43(1), pp.61~75 (2008), 대한국토·도시계획학회