Uncertainty of Simulated Paddy Rice Yield using LARS-WG Derived Climate Data in the Geumho River Basin, Korea
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This study investigates the trends and uncertainty of the impacts of climate change on paddy rice production in the Geumho riverbasin. The Long Ashton Research Station stochastic Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was used to derive future climate data for theGeumho river basin from 15 General Circulation models (GCMs) for 3 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (A2, A1Band B1) included in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th assessment report. The Food and AgriculturalOrganization (FAO) AquaCrop, a water-driven crop model, was statistically calibrated for the 1982 to 2010 climate. The index ofagreement (IoA), prediction efficiency (R2), percent bias (PBIAS), root mean square error (RMSE) and a visual technique were usedto evaluate the adjusted AquaCrop simulated yield values. The adjusted simulated yields showed RMSE, NSE, IoA and PBIAS of0.40, 0.26, 0.76 and 0.59 respectively. The 5, 9 and 15 year central moving averages showed R2 of 0.78, 0.90 and 0.96 respectivelyafter adjustment. AquaCrop was run for the 2020s (2011-2030), 2050s (2046-2065) and 2090s (2080-2099). Climate change projectionsfor Geumho river basin generally indicate a hotter and wetter future climate with maximum increase in the annual temperature of4.5 °C in the 2090s A1B, as well as maximum increase in the rainfall of 45 % in the 2090s A2. The means (and ranges) of paddyrice yields are projected to increase by 21 % (17-25 %), 34 % (27-42 %) and 43 % (31-54 %) for the 2020s, 2050s and 2090s,respectively. The A1B shows the largest rice yield uncertainty in all time slices with standard deviation of 0.148, 0.189 and 0.173 t· ha－1 for the 2020s, 2050s and 2090s, respectively.
Abstract
This study investigates the trends and uncertainty of the impacts of climate change on paddy rice production in the Geumho riverbasin. The Long Ashton Research Station stochastic Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was used to derive future climate data for theGeumho river basin from 15 General Circulation models (GCMs) for 3 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (A2, A1Band B1) included in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th assessment report. The Food and AgriculturalOrganization (FAO) AquaCrop, a water-driven crop model, was statistically calibrated for the 1982 to 2010 climate. The index ofagreement (IoA), prediction efficiency (R2), percent bias (PBIAS), root mean square error (RMSE) and a visual technique were usedto evaluate the adjusted AquaCrop simulated yield values. The adjusted simulated yields showed RMSE, NSE, IoA and PBIAS of0.40, 0.26, 0.76 and 0.59 respectively. The 5, 9 and 15 year central moving averages showed R2 of 0.78, 0.90 and 0.96 respectivelyafter adjustment. AquaCrop was run for the 2020s (2011-2030), 2050s (2046-2065) and 2090s (2080-2099). Climate change projectionsfor Geumho river basin generally indicate a hotter and wetter future climate with maximum increase in the annual temperature of4.5 °C in the 2090s A1B, as well as maximum increase in the rainfall of 45 % in the 2090s A2. The means (and ranges) of paddyrice yields are projected to increase by 21 % (17-25 %), 34 % (27-42 %) and 43 % (31-54 %) for the 2020s, 2050s and 2090s,respectively. The A1B shows the largest rice yield uncertainty in all time slices with standard deviation of 0.148, 0.189 and 0.173 t· ha－1 for the 2020s, 2050s and 2090s, respectively.
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