기후변화 시나리오에 따른 미래 논벼의 소비수량 및 생산량 변화 분석
Analyzing Consumptive Use of Water and Yields of Paddy Rice by Climate Change
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초록
Agriculture is dependable to weather condition and its change so that it is necessary to understand the impacts of climatic change. The aim of this study is to analyze the change of consumptive use of water and rice yield due to climate change using CERES-Rice. In this study, the weather data of three emission scenario of A1B, A2 and B1 created from CGCM (Coupled General Circulation Model) were used from 2011 to 2100, and downscaled daily weather data were simulated using LARS-WG (Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator). The input data for cultivated condition for simulating CERSE (Crop-Environment Resource Synthesis)-Rice were created referring to standard cultivation method of paddy rice in Korea. The results showed that consumptive uses of water for paddy rice were projected decreasing to 4.8 % (2025s), 9.1 % (2055s), 12.6 % (2085s) comparing to the baseline value of 403.5mm in A2 scenario. The rice yield of baseline was 450.7 kg/10a and projected increasing to －0.4 % (2025s), 3.9 % (2055s), 17.5% (2085s) in A1B scenario. The results demonstrated relationships between consumptive use of water and rice yields due to climate change and can be used for the agricultural water resources development planning and cultivation method of paddy rice for the future.
Abstract
Agriculture is dependable to weather condition and its change so that it is necessary to understand the impacts of climatic change. The aim of this study is to analyze the change of consumptive use of water and rice yield due to climate change using CERES-Rice. In this study, the weather data of three emission scenario of A1B, A2 and B1 created from CGCM (Coupled General Circulation Model) were used from 2011 to 2100, and downscaled daily weather data were simulated using LARS-WG (Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator). The input data for cultivated condition for simulating CERSE (Crop-Environment Resource Synthesis)-Rice were created referring to standard cultivation method of paddy rice in Korea. The results showed that consumptive uses of water for paddy rice were projected decreasing to 4.8 % (2025s), 9.1 % (2055s), 12.6 % (2085s) comparing to the baseline value of 403.5mm in A2 scenario. The rice yield of baseline was 450.7 kg/10a and projected increasing to －0.4 % (2025s), 3.9 % (2055s), 17.5% (2085s) in A1B scenario. The results demonstrated relationships between consumptive use of water and rice yields due to climate change and can be used for the agricultural water resources development planning and cultivation method of paddy rice for the future.
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