AquaCrop을 이용한 기후변화에 따른 미래 논벼 물발자국 변화 분석
Analysis of Paddy Rice Water Footprint under Climate Change Using AquaCrop
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초록
Climate change causes changes in rainfall patterns, temperature and drought frequency. Climate change impact influences on water management andcrop production. It is critical issue in agricultural industry. Rice is a staple cereal crop in South Korea and Korea uses a ponding system for its paddy fieldswhich requires a significant amount of water. In addition, water supply has inter-relationship with crop production which indicates water productivity. Therefore, it is important to assess overall impacts of climate change on water resource and crop production. A water footprint concept is an indicatorwhich shows relationship between water use and crop yield. In addition, it generally composed of three components depending on water resources: green,blue, grey water. This study analyzed the change trend of water footprint of paddy rice under the climate change. The downscaled climate data fromHadGEM3-RA based on RCP 8.5 scenario was applied as future periods (2020s, 2050s, 2080s), and historical climate data was set to base line (1990s). Depending on agro-climatic zones, Suwon and Jeonju were selected for study area. A yield of paddy rice was simulated by using FAO-AquaCrop 5.0,which is a water-driven crop model. Model was calibrated by adjusting parameters and was validated by Mann-Whitney U test statistically. The meansof water footprint were projected increase by 55 % (2020s), 51 % (2050s) and 48 % (2080s), respectively, from the baseline value of 767 m2/ton inSuwon. In case of Jeonju, total water footprint was projected to increase by 46 % (2020s), 45 % (2050s), 12 % (2080s), respectively, from the baselinevalue of 765 m2/ton. The results are expected to be useful for paddy water management and operation of water supply system and apply in establishinglong-term policies for agricultural water resources.
Abstract
Climate change causes changes in rainfall patterns, temperature and drought frequency. Climate change impact influences on water management andcrop production. It is critical issue in agricultural industry. Rice is a staple cereal crop in South Korea and Korea uses a ponding system for its paddy fieldswhich requires a significant amount of water. In addition, water supply has inter-relationship with crop production which indicates water productivity. Therefore, it is important to assess overall impacts of climate change on water resource and crop production. A water footprint concept is an indicatorwhich shows relationship between water use and crop yield. In addition, it generally composed of three components depending on water resources: green,blue, grey water. This study analyzed the change trend of water footprint of paddy rice under the climate change. The downscaled climate data fromHadGEM3-RA based on RCP 8.5 scenario was applied as future periods (2020s, 2050s, 2080s), and historical climate data was set to base line (1990s). Depending on agro-climatic zones, Suwon and Jeonju were selected for study area. A yield of paddy rice was simulated by using FAO-AquaCrop 5.0,which is a water-driven crop model. Model was calibrated by adjusting parameters and was validated by Mann-Whitney U test statistically. The meansof water footprint were projected increase by 55 % (2020s), 51 % (2050s) and 48 % (2080s), respectively, from the baseline value of 767 m2/ton inSuwon. In case of Jeonju, total water footprint was projected to increase by 46 % (2020s), 45 % (2050s), 12 % (2080s), respectively, from the baselinevalue of 765 m2/ton. The results are expected to be useful for paddy water management and operation of water supply system and apply in establishinglong-term policies for agricultural water resources.
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