구속 다중선형회귀 모형을 이용한 기후변화에 따른 농작물 홍수 피해 면적 분석
Analysis of the Crop Damage Area Related to Flood by Climate Change Using a Constrained Multiple Linear Regression Model
2
조회
0
다운로드
1
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
In this study, the characteristics of crop damage area by flooding for 113 middle range watersheds during 2000-2016 were analyzed and future cropdamage area by flooding were analyzed using 13 GCM outputs such as hourly maximum rainfall, 10-min maximum rainfall, number of days of80 mm/day, daily rainfall maximum, annual rainfall amount associated with RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios and watershed characteristic data suchas DEM, urbanization ratio, population density, asset density, road improvement ratio, river improvement ratio, drainage system improvement ratio,pumping capacity, detention basin capacity, and crop damage area by flooding. A constrained multiple linear regression model was used to constructthe relationships between the crop damage area by flooding and other variables. Future flood index related to crop damage may mainly increase inthe Mankyung watershed, Southwest part of Youngsan and Sumjin river basin and Southern part of Nackdong river basin. Results are useful toidentify watersheds which need to establish strategies for responding to future flood damage.
Abstract
In this study, the characteristics of crop damage area by flooding for 113 middle range watersheds during 2000-2016 were analyzed and future cropdamage area by flooding were analyzed using 13 GCM outputs such as hourly maximum rainfall, 10-min maximum rainfall, number of days of80 mm/day, daily rainfall maximum, annual rainfall amount associated with RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios and watershed characteristic data suchas DEM, urbanization ratio, population density, asset density, road improvement ratio, river improvement ratio, drainage system improvement ratio,pumping capacity, detention basin capacity, and crop damage area by flooding. A constrained multiple linear regression model was used to constructthe relationships between the crop damage area by flooding and other variables. Future flood index related to crop damage may mainly increase inthe Mankyung watershed, Southwest part of Youngsan and Sumjin river basin and Southern part of Nackdong river basin. Results are useful toidentify watersheds which need to establish strategies for responding to future flood damage.
참고문헌 (23)
- Ahn, J. H., "A new flood index for use in evaluation of local flood severity: A case study of small ungauged catchments in Korea 1", JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 49(1), pp.1~14 (2013)[DOI]
- Aronica, G. T., "Probabilistic evaluation of flood hazard in urban areas using Monte Carlo simulation", Hydrological Processes, 26, pp.3962~3972 (2012)[DOI]
- Brémond, P., "Economic evaluation of flood damage to agriculture-review and analysis of existing methods", Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 13(10), pp.2493~2512 (2013)[DOI]
- Environmental indicators: Typology and overview, "EEA", ~, pp.Technical report 25 (1999)
- Ettinger, S., "Building vulnerability to hydro-geomorphic hazards : Estimating damage probability from qualitative vulnerability assessment using logistic regression", Journal of Hydrology, 541, pp.553~562 (2016)[DOI]
- Hatzikyriakou, A., "Simulating storm surge waves for structural vulnerability estimation and flood hazard mapping", Natural Hazards, 89, pp.939~962 (2017)[DOI]
- Climate change (2007): Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Contribution of Working Group Ⅱ to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, "IPCC", Cambridge University Press, ~ (2007)
- Jun, K. S., "A fuzzy multi-criteria approach to flood risk vulnerability in South Korea by considering climate change impacts", Expert Systems with Applications, 40(4), pp.1003~1013 (2013)[DOI]
- Kandilioti, G., "Preliminary flood risk assessment : The case of Athens", Natural hazards, 61(2), pp.441~468 (2012)[DOI]
- 김응석, "홍수방어시설용량-피해 매트릭스를 이용한 서울시 행정구역별 고유홍수취약성 평가", 한국방재학회논문집, 14(2), pp.299~307 (2014), 한국방재학회
- 김환석, "기후변화와 대규모 하천정비 사업을 고려한 낙동강 유역 자연재해 홍수 취약성 평가", 한국방재학회논문집, 12(2), pp.107~113 (2012), 한국방재학회[DOI]
- 김종해, "하천 홍수범람모의를 위한 불확실도 해석기법의 적용", 한국수자원학회 논문집, 36(4), pp.661~671 (2003), 한국수자원학회
- 김묘정, "홍수피해유형별 홍수 위험 지수 적용성 분석", 대한토목학회논문집(국문), 38(1), pp.29~39 (2018), 대한토목학회[DOI]
- 김태형, "홍수위험지도 활용을 위한 낙동강 유역에서의 홍수취약도 분석", 한국지리정보학회지, 14(3), pp.203~222 (2011), 한국지리정보학회
- 이민우, "우리나라의 지역별 홍수피해 특성을 고려한 홍수피해 취약성 평가", 한국방재학회논문집, 13(4), pp.245~256 (2013), 한국방재학회
- OECD core set of indicators for environmental performance reviews, "OECD", OECD, ~, pp.OECD Environment Monographs 83 (1993)
- 박두호, "Panel Data 분석을 통한 홍수피해와 복구비 관계분석", 한국수자원학회 논문집, 44(1), pp.1~8 (2011), 한국수자원학회
- 박지훈, "분위사상법을 적용한 RCP 시나리오 기반 시군별 홍수 위험도 평가", 한국농공학회논문집, 55(4), pp.73~82 (2013), 한국농공학회
- Saharia, M., "Characterization of floods in the United States", Journal of Hydrology, 548, pp.524~535 (2017)[DOI]
- Schroeder, A. J., "The development of a flash flood severity index", Journal of Hydrology, 541, pp.523~532 (2016)[DOI]
- 성장현, "서울 지역의 미래 홍수취약도 평가", 한국습지학회지, 14(3), pp.341~352 (2012), 한국습지학회
- 윤선권, "Integrated Flood Risk Analysis in a Changing Climate: A Case Study from the Korean Han River Basin", KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering, 18(5), pp.1563~1571 (2014), 대한토목학회[DOI]
- Zachos, L. G., "Flood vulnerability indices and emergency management planning in the Yazoo Basin, Mississippi", International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 18, pp.89~99 (2016)[DOI]