CMIP5 및 CMIP6 GCM 기반 무한천 유역 농경지 미래 침수 위험도 분석
Future Inundation Risk Evaluation of Farmland in the Moohan Stream Watershed Based on CMIP5 and CMIP6 GCMs
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초록
The objective of this study was to evaluate future inundation risk of farmland according to the application of coupled model intercomparison projectphase 5 (CMIP5) and coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6). In this study, future weather data based on CMIP5 and CMIP6 generalcirculation model (GCM) were collected, and inundation was simulated using the river modeling system for small agricultural watershed (RMS) andGATE2018 in the Tanjung district of the Moohan stream watershed. Although the average probable rainfall of CMIP5 and CMIP6 did not showsignificant differences as a result of calculating the probability rainfall, the difference between the minimum and maximum values was significantlylarger in CMIP6. The results of the flood discharge calculation and the inundation risk assessment showed similar to trends to those of probabilityrainfall calculations. The risk of inundation in the future period was found to increase in all sub-watersheds, and the risk of inundation has beenanalyzed to increase significantly, especially if CMIP6 data are used. Therefore, it is necessary to consider climate change effects by utilizingCMIP6-based future weather data when designing and reinforcing water structures in agricultural areas in the future. The results of this study areexpected to be used as basic data for utilizing CMIP6-based future weather data.
Abstract
The objective of this study was to evaluate future inundation risk of farmland according to the application of coupled model intercomparison projectphase 5 (CMIP5) and coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6). In this study, future weather data based on CMIP5 and CMIP6 generalcirculation model (GCM) were collected, and inundation was simulated using the river modeling system for small agricultural watershed (RMS) andGATE2018 in the Tanjung district of the Moohan stream watershed. Although the average probable rainfall of CMIP5 and CMIP6 did not showsignificant differences as a result of calculating the probability rainfall, the difference between the minimum and maximum values was significantlylarger in CMIP6. The results of the flood discharge calculation and the inundation risk assessment showed similar to trends to those of probabilityrainfall calculations. The risk of inundation in the future period was found to increase in all sub-watersheds, and the risk of inundation has beenanalyzed to increase significantly, especially if CMIP6 data are used. Therefore, it is necessary to consider climate change effects by utilizingCMIP6-based future weather data when designing and reinforcing water structures in agricultural areas in the future. The results of this study areexpected to be used as basic data for utilizing CMIP6-based future weather data.
참고문헌 (19)
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