기후변화에 따른 도당천 유역 미래 물순환율 평가
Assessment of Future Water Circulation Rate in Dodang Watershed under Climate Change
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The objective of this study is to analyze the trend of changes in the water circulation rates under climate change by adopting the concept of WCRdefined by the Ministry of Environment. With the need for sound water circulation recovery, the MOE proposed the idea of WCR as (1-directflow/precipitation). The guideline for calculating WCR suggests the SCS method, which is only suitable for short term rainfall events. However, climatechange, which affects WCR significantly, is a global phenomenon and happens gradually over a long period. Therefore, long-term trends in WCRsshould also be considered when analyzing changes in WCR due to climate change. RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarioswere used to simulate future runoff. SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was run under the future daily data from GCMs (General CirculationModels) after the calibration. In 2085s, monthly WCR decreased by 4.2-9.9% and 3.3-8.7% in April and October. However, the WCR in the winterincreased as the precipitation during the winter decreased compared to the baseline. In the aspect of yearly WCR, the value showed a decrease in mostGCMs in the mid-long future. In particular, in the case of the RCP 8.5 scenario, the WCR reduced 2-3 times rapidly than the RCP 4.5 scenario. TheWCR of 2055s did not significantly differ from the 2025s, but the value declined by 0.6-2.8% at 2085s.
Abstract
The objective of this study is to analyze the trend of changes in the water circulation rates under climate change by adopting the concept of WCRdefined by the Ministry of Environment. With the need for sound water circulation recovery, the MOE proposed the idea of WCR as (1-directflow/precipitation). The guideline for calculating WCR suggests the SCS method, which is only suitable for short term rainfall events. However, climatechange, which affects WCR significantly, is a global phenomenon and happens gradually over a long period. Therefore, long-term trends in WCRsshould also be considered when analyzing changes in WCR due to climate change. RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarioswere used to simulate future runoff. SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was run under the future daily data from GCMs (General CirculationModels) after the calibration. In 2085s, monthly WCR decreased by 4.2-9.9% and 3.3-8.7% in April and October. However, the WCR in the winterincreased as the precipitation during the winter decreased compared to the baseline. In the aspect of yearly WCR, the value showed a decrease in mostGCMs in the mid-long future. In particular, in the case of the RCP 8.5 scenario, the WCR reduced 2-3 times rapidly than the RCP 4.5 scenario. TheWCR of 2055s did not significantly differ from the 2025s, but the value declined by 0.6-2.8% at 2085s.
참고문헌 (26)
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