RCP 8.5 기후변화시나리오를 이용한 기후변화가 영산강유역의 장기유출에 미치는 영향 평가
Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Long Term Runoff in the Young San River Based on the RCP 8.5 Climate Change Scenarios
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초록
많은 기후변화 연구들은 극한 기온과 집중호우가 발생할 가능성이 증가하고 가까운 미래에는 강력한 태풍 발생 가능성이 증가할 것으로 전망하고 있다, 현재 기후변화 시나리오는 기후변화를 고려할 수 있는 가장 적절한 방법으로 받아들여주고 있다. 본 연구의 목적은 기후변화가 수문순환과정에 미치는 영향을 분석하고 이를 통한 유역규모의 수자원에 미치는 영향을 전망하는 것이다. 본 연구에서는 기상청에서 제공하는 고해상도의 RCP8.5 기후변화시나리오와 준분포형 수문모형, SLURP 모형을 이용하였다. 분석결과 6월 달의 월유출량은 감소하고 8월과 9월의 유출량은 증가하는 것으로 분석되었다. 또한, 유황 분석을 통해 평균저수량은 증가하고 풍수량과 평수량은 감소하는 것으로 전망되었다.
Abstract
Many climate change studies expected occurrence possibility of extreme high temperature, increase in heavy rain events and strong typhoon in near future. Currently, climate change scenarios have used to prepared appropriate plan for these phenomena under climate change. The main purpose of this paper is to suggest and evaluate an operational method of assessing the potential impact of climate change on hydrologic components and water resources at the regional scale. Future runoff was simulated using high resolution RCM(12.5㎞x12.5㎞) RCP 8.5 scenario which is operated by Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA) and semi-distribution model, SLURP. The study area was applied to the Young San River including nine dams. It was found that runoff characteristics, especially annual distribution, can be changed. The discharge in July tends to be decreased while the runoff can be increased in August and September. The flow duration curve was estimated and compared from observation data and simulated daily runoff data for Naju site to evaluate climate change effect. The analysis of the duration flow curve was shown that the mean of averaged low flow was increased while the averaged wet and normal flow were decreased under climate change scenario.
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