AR5 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 소양강댐 유역 댐유입량 및 증발산량의 변화 분석
Analysis of the Change of Dam Inflow and Evapotranspiration in the Soyanggang Dam Basin According to the AR5 Climate Change Scenarios
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참고문헌
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초록
This study analyzed the change of the dam inflow and evapotranspiration in the Soyanggang dam basin using the results of 26 CMIP5 GCMs based on AR5 RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The SWAT model was used to simulate the dam inflow and evapotranspiration in the target watershed. The simulation was performed during 2010~2016 as the reference year and during 2010~2099 as the analysis period. Bias correction of input data such as precipitation and air temperature were conducted for the reference period of 2006~2016. Results were analyzed for 3 different periods, 2025s (2010~2040), 2055s (2041~2070), and 2085s (2071~2099). It demonstrated that the change of dam inflow gradually increases 9.5~15.9 % for RCP 4.5 and 13.3~29.8 % for RCP 8.5. The change of evapotranspiration gradually increases 1.6~8.6 % for RCP 4.5 and 1.5~8.5 % for RCP8.5.
Abstract
This study analyzed the change of the dam inflow and evapotranspiration in the Soyanggang dam basin using the results of 26 CMIP5 GCMs based on AR5 RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The SWAT model was used to simulate the dam inflow and evapotranspiration in the target watershed. The simulation was performed during 2010~2016 as the reference year and during 2010~2099 as the analysis period. Bias correction of input data such as precipitation and air temperature were conducted for the reference period of 2006~2016. Results were analyzed for 3 different periods, 2025s (2010~2040), 2055s (2041~2070), and 2085s (2071~2099). It demonstrated that the change of dam inflow gradually increases 9.5~15.9 % for RCP 4.5 and 13.3~29.8 % for RCP 8.5. The change of evapotranspiration gradually increases 1.6~8.6 % for RCP 4.5 and 1.5~8.5 % for RCP8.5.
참고문헌 (15)
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