기후변화 시나리오에 따른 소규모 저수지의 홍수 취약성 평가- 경기도 내 저수지를 중심으로 -
Assessment of Flood Vulnerability for Small Reservoir according to Climate Change Scenario – Reservoir in Gyeonggi-do -
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Most of the reservoirs managed by the city and county are small and it is difficult to respond to climate change because the drainage area is smalland the inflow increases rapidly when a heavy rain occurs. In this study, the current status of reservoirs managed by city and county in Gyeonggi-dowas reviewed and flood vulnerability due to climate change was analyzed. In order to analyze the impact of climate change, CMIP6-based future climatescenario provided by IPCC was used, and future rainfall data was established through downscaling of climate scenario (SSP8-8.5). The floodvulnerability of reservoirs due to climate change was evaluated using the concept provided by the IPCC. The future annual precipitation at six weatherstations appeared a gradual increase and the fluctuation range of the annual precipitation was also found to increase. As a result of calculating the floodvulnerability index, it was analyzed that the flood vulnerability was the largest in the 2055s period and the lowest in the 2025s period. In the pastperiod (2000s), the number of D and E grade reservoirs was 58, but it was found to increase to 107 in the 2055s period. In 2085s, there were 17E grade reservoirs, which was more than in the past. Therefore, it is necessary to take measures against the increasing risk of flooding in the future.
Abstract
Most of the reservoirs managed by the city and county are small and it is difficult to respond to climate change because the drainage area is smalland the inflow increases rapidly when a heavy rain occurs. In this study, the current status of reservoirs managed by city and county in Gyeonggi-dowas reviewed and flood vulnerability due to climate change was analyzed. In order to analyze the impact of climate change, CMIP6-based future climatescenario provided by IPCC was used, and future rainfall data was established through downscaling of climate scenario (SSP8-8.5). The floodvulnerability of reservoirs due to climate change was evaluated using the concept provided by the IPCC. The future annual precipitation at six weatherstations appeared a gradual increase and the fluctuation range of the annual precipitation was also found to increase. As a result of calculating the floodvulnerability index, it was analyzed that the flood vulnerability was the largest in the 2055s period and the lowest in the 2025s period. In the pastperiod (2000s), the number of D and E grade reservoirs was 58, but it was found to increase to 107 in the 2055s period. In 2085s, there were 17E grade reservoirs, which was more than in the past. Therefore, it is necessary to take measures against the increasing risk of flooding in the future.
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