농업가뭄대응을 위한 가뭄기상시나리오 모델 개발 및 적용
Developing Model of Drought Climate Scenarios for Agricultural Drought Mitigation
0
조회
0
다운로드
3
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
Different from other natural hazards including floods, drought advances slowly and spreads widely, so that the preparedness is quite important and effective to mitigate the impacts from drought. Evaluation and forecast the status of drought for the present and future utilizing the meteorological scenario for agricultural drought can be useful to set a plan for agricultural drought mitigation in agriculture water resource management. In this study, drought climate scenario model on the basis of historical drought records for preparing agricultural drought mitigation was developed. To consider dependency and correlation between various climate variables,this model was utilized the historical climate pattern using reference year setting of four drought levels. The reference year for drought level was determined based on the frequency analysis result of monthly effective rainfall. On the basis of this model, drought climate scenarios at Suwon and Icheon station were set up and these scenarios were applied on the water balance simulation of reservoir water storage for Madun reservoir as well as the soil moisture model for Gosam reservoir watershed. The results showed that drought climate scenarios in this study could be more useful for long-term forecast of longer than 2～3 months period rather than short-term forecast of below one month.
Abstract
Different from other natural hazards including floods, drought advances slowly and spreads widely, so that the preparedness is quite important and effective to mitigate the impacts from drought. Evaluation and forecast the status of drought for the present and future utilizing the meteorological scenario for agricultural drought can be useful to set a plan for agricultural drought mitigation in agriculture water resource management. In this study, drought climate scenario model on the basis of historical drought records for preparing agricultural drought mitigation was developed. To consider dependency and correlation between various climate variables,this model was utilized the historical climate pattern using reference year setting of four drought levels. The reference year for drought level was determined based on the frequency analysis result of monthly effective rainfall. On the basis of this model, drought climate scenarios at Suwon and Icheon station were set up and these scenarios were applied on the water balance simulation of reservoir water storage for Madun reservoir as well as the soil moisture model for Gosam reservoir watershed. The results showed that drought climate scenarios in this study could be more useful for long-term forecast of longer than 2～3 months period rather than short-term forecast of below one month.
참고문헌 (19)
- 안소라, "MODSIM을 이용한 농업용 수리시설의 용수공급율 평가 - 금강권역을 중심으로 -", 한국수자원학회 논문집, 42(10), pp.825~843 (2009), 한국수자원학회
- 안소라, "SWSI에 기반한 금강권역 농업용 저수지의 수문학적 가뭄평가", 한국농공학회논문집, 51(5), pp.35~49 (2009), 한국농공학회
- Bae, S. J., "Agricultural Drought Analysis using Soil Water Balance Model and Geographic Information System", Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers, 41(6), pp.33~43 (1999)
- Chow, V. T., "A General Formula for Hydrologic Frequency Analysis", Transactions American Geophysical Union, 32, pp.231~237 (1951)
- Chung, H. W., "Irrigation and Drainage Engineering" (2009), Dongmyeongsa
- Fread, D. L., "A Perspective on Hydrologic Prediction Trends", Special Symposium on Hydrology AMS, Phoenix, Arizona (1998)
- 홍은미, "LARS-WG를 이용한 기후변화에 따른 논벼 증발산량 산정", 한국농공학회논문집, 51(3), pp.25~35 (2009), 한국농공학회
- 장민원, "Development of A Single Reservoir Agricultural Drought Evaluation Model for Paddy", 한국농공학회논문집, 46(3), pp.17~30 (2004), 한국농공학회
- Kim, H. Y., "Simulating Daily Inflow and Release Rates for Irrigation Reservoirs (Ⅲ) - Model Application to Daily Reservoir Operations -", Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers, 30(3), pp.95~105 (1988)
- 정대일, "앙상블 예측을 이용한 충주댐의 월 유입량 예측", 대한토목학회 논문집B, 22(3-B), pp.321~331 (2002), 대한토목학회
- 김옥경, "토양수분지수를 이용한 유역단위 가뭄 평가", 한국농공학회논문집, 48(6), pp.3~13 (2006), 한국농공학회
- Kim, S. J., "Statistical Analysis of Irrigation Reservoir Water Supply Index", Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers, 40(4), pp.58~66 (1998)
- Kim, Y. O., "Improving Water Supply Outlooks in Korea with Ensemble Streamflow Prediction", Water International, 26(4), pp.563~568 (2001)
- 이상진, "앙상블 예측기법을 통한 유역 월유출 전망", 한국농공학회논문집, 52(1), pp.13~18 (2010), 한국농공학회
- Design Criteria of Land and Water Development Plan for Agriculture (Irrigation), "Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MAF)", Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (in Korean), ~ (1998)
- Development of Calamity Preventing and Restoration Affairs Supporting System of the Ministry of Agriculture and Forest, "Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MAF)", Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (in Korean), ~ (1998)
- 남원호, "A Real-Time Online Drought Broadcast System for Monitoring Soil Moisture Index", KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering, 16(3), pp.357~365 (2012), 대한토목학회
- Nam, W. H., "Analysis of Autumn Drought using Soil MoistureIndex", KCID (Korea National Committee on Irrigationand Drainage) Journal, 15(1), pp.21~33 (2008)
- J. T. Kim, "Application of Drought Indices for Agricultural Drought Evaluation", KCID (Korea National Committee on Irrigation and Drainage) Journal, 13(1), pp.72~81 (2006)