RCP 시나리오에 따른 비관개기 누적강수량을 고려한 둑높이기 저수지의 미래 가뭄대응능력 평가
Evaluation of Reservoir Drought Response Capability Considering Precipitation of Non-irrigation Period using RCP Scenario
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Recent studies about irrigation water use have focused on agricultural reservoir operation in irrigation period. At the same time, it is significant to storewater resource in reservoir during non-irrigation period in order to secure sufficient water in early growing season. In this study, RepresentativeConcentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5, 8.5 scenarios with the Global Climate Model (GCM) of The Second Generation Earth System Model (CanESM2)were downscaled with bias correlation method. Cumulative precipitation during non-irrigation season, October to March, was analyzed. Interactionbetween cumulative precipitation and carry-over storage was analyzed with linear regression model for ten study reservoirs. Using the regression model,reservoir drought response ability was evaluated with expression of excess and deficiency. The results showed that future droughts will be more severethan past droughts. Especially in case of non-exceedance probability of 10%, drought in southern region seemed to be serious. Nine study reservoirsshowed deficiency range from 10% to 55%, which turned out to be vulnerable for future drought. Only Jang-Chan reservoir was secure for early growingseason in spite of drought with deficiency of 8% and -2%. The results of this study represents current agricultural reservoirs have vulnerability for theupcoming drought.
Abstract
Recent studies about irrigation water use have focused on agricultural reservoir operation in irrigation period. At the same time, it is significant to storewater resource in reservoir during non-irrigation period in order to secure sufficient water in early growing season. In this study, RepresentativeConcentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5, 8.5 scenarios with the Global Climate Model (GCM) of The Second Generation Earth System Model (CanESM2)were downscaled with bias correlation method. Cumulative precipitation during non-irrigation season, October to March, was analyzed. Interactionbetween cumulative precipitation and carry-over storage was analyzed with linear regression model for ten study reservoirs. Using the regression model,reservoir drought response ability was evaluated with expression of excess and deficiency. The results showed that future droughts will be more severethan past droughts. Especially in case of non-exceedance probability of 10%, drought in southern region seemed to be serious. Nine study reservoirsshowed deficiency range from 10% to 55%, which turned out to be vulnerable for future drought. Only Jang-Chan reservoir was secure for early growingseason in spite of drought with deficiency of 8% and -2%. The results of this study represents current agricultural reservoirs have vulnerability for theupcoming drought.
참고문헌 (10)
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