RCP 시나리오 기반 농업용 저수지의 내한능력 평가
Assessment of Anti-Drought Capacity for Agricultural Reservoirs using RCP Scenarios
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초록
Agriculture is affected directly by climate conditions and changes, and it is necessary to understand the impact of climate changeon agricultural reservoirs which are the main water resources for paddy fields in Korea. This study aimed to evaluate the impact ofclimate change on the anti-drought capacity including water supply capability (WSC) and drought response ability (DRA) of agriculturalreservoirs based on RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of CanESM2 (The Second Generation EarthSystem Model) provided by CCCma (Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis). The WSC and DRA were estimated usingfrequency analysis and runs theory. The six reservoirs (Yooshin, Nogok, Kumsung, Songgok, Gapyung, Seoma) were selected consideringgeographical characteristics and design criteria of reservoir capacity. In case of Seoma reservoir, more than 10 year drought returnperiod (DRP), the variation of the WSC was estimated larger than the others. In case of Yooshin reservior (2～5 DRP) DRC wasdecreased in 2025s under RCP8.5. These results could be utilized for agricultural reservoirs management and future design criteriaconsidering climate change impacts on paddy irrigation.
Abstract
Agriculture is affected directly by climate conditions and changes, and it is necessary to understand the impact of climate changeon agricultural reservoirs which are the main water resources for paddy fields in Korea. This study aimed to evaluate the impact ofclimate change on the anti-drought capacity including water supply capability (WSC) and drought response ability (DRA) of agriculturalreservoirs based on RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of CanESM2 (The Second Generation EarthSystem Model) provided by CCCma (Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis). The WSC and DRA were estimated usingfrequency analysis and runs theory. The six reservoirs (Yooshin, Nogok, Kumsung, Songgok, Gapyung, Seoma) were selected consideringgeographical characteristics and design criteria of reservoir capacity. In case of Seoma reservoir, more than 10 year drought returnperiod (DRP), the variation of the WSC was estimated larger than the others. In case of Yooshin reservior (2～5 DRP) DRC wasdecreased in 2025s under RCP8.5. These results could be utilized for agricultural reservoirs management and future design criteriaconsidering climate change impacts on paddy irrigation.
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