거주층이 아파트 가격에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구: 공간ㆍ시간모형 분석
A Study on the Impact of Living Floor on the Price of an Apartment using a Spatio-temporal Model
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초록
이 연구에서는 2017년 세종시에서 거래된 3,249건의 아파트 실거래가격으로 거주층이 아파트 가격에 미치는 영향을 비공간적 회귀분석 모형, spatial lag model과 spatio- temporal model을 사용하여 분석하였다. 그 결과 spatio-temporal model이 가장 적합한 모형인 것으로 나타났다. 실증분석 결과 거주층 더미변수는 19층-21층 더미변수를 제외하고는 거주층수가 높아질수록 가격이 높아지는 것으로 나타나, 거주층이 높아질수록 아파트 가격이 상승하다가 일정 층수를 초과하면 하락추세로 반전된다는 선행연구와는 다르게 나왔다. 이것은 세종시가 평균 연령이 다른 지역에 비하여 낮아 아파트 구매자가 이동 편익보다는 고층에 따른 환경 편익을 더 중요하게 생각하고 있는 것에 기인하는 것으로 추정된다. 또한 거주층 변수의 회귀계수보다도 상대적 거주층 변수의 회귀계수가 더 컸는데, 이것은 아파트 구매자가 상대적 거주층을 더 중요하게 여기고 있다는 것을 나타낸다.
Abstract
This study analyzed the impact of living floor on the price of an apartment based on the 3,249 price data samples of apartments traded in Sejong City in 2017. In addition to a traditional regression analysis, we employed a spatial lag model, and a spatio-temporal model in determining the prices of neighboring apartments. Among these, the spatio-temporal model turned out to be the most appropriate since its log likelihood was the largest after having the smallest AIC and SC values. Regarding the living floor, which is our main concern, we made a dummy variable per third floor unit with 1-3 floors as our reference variable, while the highest dummy being the 28-30th floor unit dummy. We controlled variables such as size, total number of floors, age, squared age, the number of households, parking lot capacity, stair type apartment dummy, distance from government complexes, distance from Daejon City Hall, BTR dummy, brand name dummy, and time fixed effect dummy, which can also affect the price. As a result, we found that, except for the number of households and time fixed effect variables, most variables were significant with 1% level. In particular, the living floor dummy that caught our interest showed that, except for the 19th-21st floor dummy, the higher the floor, the higher the price. This result is different from the literature where the living floor area raises the price up to a certain floor, but after that point, the price rather declines. This may be due to the residents in Sejong City being comparatively young, on average, and may favor high living floors that can provide good environmental benefits. Moreover, the coefficient of the relative living floor (living floor area/total floor area) was larger than that of the actual living floor, showing that apartment purchasers value the relative height of the living floor more than just the mere height of the living floor.
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