SSP 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 간월호 유역의 미래 유출특성 변화
Future Runoff Characteristics of Ganwol Estuary Reservoir Watershed Based on SSP Scenarios
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초록
The estuary reservoir is a major source of agricultural water in Korea; for effective and sustainable water resource management of the estuary reservoir,it is crucial to comprehensively consider various water resource factors, including water supply, flood, and pollutant management, and analyze futurerunoff changes in consideration of environmental changes such as climate change. The objective of this study is to estimate the impact of future climatechange on the runoff characteristics of an estuary reservoir watershed. Climate data on future Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios werederived from two Global Climate Models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). The Hydrological SimulationProgram-Fortran (HSPF) was used to simulate past and future long-term runoff of the Ganwol estuary reservoir watershed. The findings showed thatas the impact of climate change intensified, the average annual runoff in the future period was higher in the order of SSP5, SSP3, SSP1, and SSP2,and the ratio of runoff in July decreased while the ratio of runoff in October increased. Moreover, in terms of river flow regime, the SSP2 scenariowas found to be the most advantageous and the SSP3 scenario was the most disadvantageous. The findings of this study can be used as basic datafor developing sustainable water resource management plans and can be applied to estuary reservoir models to predict future environmental changesin estuary reservoirs
Abstract
The estuary reservoir is a major source of agricultural water in Korea; for effective and sustainable water resource management of the estuary reservoir,it is crucial to comprehensively consider various water resource factors, including water supply, flood, and pollutant management, and analyze futurerunoff changes in consideration of environmental changes such as climate change. The objective of this study is to estimate the impact of future climatechange on the runoff characteristics of an estuary reservoir watershed. Climate data on future Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios werederived from two Global Climate Models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). The Hydrological SimulationProgram-Fortran (HSPF) was used to simulate past and future long-term runoff of the Ganwol estuary reservoir watershed. The findings showed thatas the impact of climate change intensified, the average annual runoff in the future period was higher in the order of SSP5, SSP3, SSP1, and SSP2,and the ratio of runoff in July decreased while the ratio of runoff in October increased. Moreover, in terms of river flow regime, the SSP2 scenariowas found to be the most advantageous and the SSP3 scenario was the most disadvantageous. The findings of this study can be used as basic datafor developing sustainable water resource management plans and can be applied to estuary reservoir models to predict future environmental changesin estuary reservoirs
참고문헌 (23)
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