기후변화 대응을 위한 로버스트 의사결정 기반간월호의 시기별 관리수위 최적화
Optimization of Seasonal Managed Water Levels of an Ganwol Estuary Reservoir Based on Robust Decision-Making for Climate Change Response
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The frequency and magnitude of droughts and floods are increasing due to climate change, necessitating comprehensive water resource managementof estuary reservoirs considering both water supply and flood control. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to optimize the seasonal managed waterlevels of estuary reservoirs using a Robust Decision-Making (RDM) approach. Sustainability indices were used to establish evaluation indicators thatconsider both water supply and flood control. Climate change data were selected from six Global Climate Models (GCMs) of Coupled ModelIntercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), designated as S1 to S6 in order of their precipitation levels, utilizing SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway)1,2, 3, and 5 scenarios. The Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) was used to simulate changes in inflow due to climate change, and changesin reservoir water levels were simulated according to sluice gate operations. The evaluation indicators calculated under current managed water levelconditions showed very poor performance especially in terms of water supply. The optimized managed water level based on RDM using regret wasWL0 to WL5 at 0.0, 0.0, -0.3, -1.1, -1.7, and -2.2 EL. m, respectively. Applying the optimal alternative showed improvements in terms of water supply
Abstract
The frequency and magnitude of droughts and floods are increasing due to climate change, necessitating comprehensive water resource managementof estuary reservoirs considering both water supply and flood control. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to optimize the seasonal managed waterlevels of estuary reservoirs using a Robust Decision-Making (RDM) approach. Sustainability indices were used to establish evaluation indicators thatconsider both water supply and flood control. Climate change data were selected from six Global Climate Models (GCMs) of Coupled ModelIntercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), designated as S1 to S6 in order of their precipitation levels, utilizing SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway)1,2, 3, and 5 scenarios. The Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) was used to simulate changes in inflow due to climate change, and changesin reservoir water levels were simulated according to sluice gate operations. The evaluation indicators calculated under current managed water levelconditions showed very poor performance especially in terms of water supply. The optimized managed water level based on RDM using regret wasWL0 to WL5 at 0.0, 0.0, -0.3, -1.1, -1.7, and -2.2 EL. m, respectively. Applying the optimal alternative showed improvements in terms of water supply