SSP 시나리오를 고려한 농업용 저수지의 이수측면 잠재영향평가
Assessment of the Potential Impact of Climate Change on the Drought in Agricultural Reservoirs under SSP Scenarios
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초록
This study conducted an assessment of potential impacts on the drought in agricultural reservoirs using the recently proposed SSP (Shared SocioeconomicP athways) scenarios by IPCC (Intergovernmental P anel on Climat e Change). T his study assesses the potential impact o f climate change on agriculturalwater resources and in frastructure vulnerability within Gyeongsangnam-do, focusing on 15 agricultural reservoirs. The assessment was based on the KRC(Korea Rural Community Corporation) 1st vulnerability assessment methodology using RCP scenarios for 2021. However, there are limitations due tothe necessity for climate impact assessments based on the latest climate in formation and the uncertainties associated with using a single scenario fromnational standard scenarios. Therefore, we applied the 13 GCM (General Circulation Model) outputs based on the newly introduced SSP scenarios. Furthermore, due to difficulties in data acquisiton, we reassessed potential impacts by redistributing weights for proxy variables. As a main result, withlower future potential impacts observed in areas with higher precipit ation along the southern coast. Overall, the potential impacts increased for allreservoirs as we moved into the future, maintaining their relative rankings, yet showing no significant variability in the far future. Although the overallpattern o f potential impacts aligns with previous evaluations, reevaluation under similar conditions with di fferent spatial resolutions emphasizes thecritical role o f meteorological data spatial resolution in assessments. The results o f this study are expected to improve the credibility and accuracyformulation o f vulnerability employing more scienti fic predictions.
Abstract
This study conducted an assessment of potential impacts on the drought in agricultural reservoirs using the recently proposed SSP (Shared SocioeconomicP athways) scenarios by IPCC (Intergovernmental P anel on Climat e Change). T his study assesses the potential impact o f climate change on agriculturalwater resources and in frastructure vulnerability within Gyeongsangnam-do, focusing on 15 agricultural reservoirs. The assessment was based on the KRC(Korea Rural Community Corporation) 1st vulnerability assessment methodology using RCP scenarios for 2021. However, there are limitations due tothe necessity for climate impact assessments based on the latest climate in formation and the uncertainties associated with using a single scenario fromnational standard scenarios. Therefore, we applied the 13 GCM (General Circulation Model) outputs based on the newly introduced SSP scenarios. Furthermore, due to difficulties in data acquisiton, we reassessed potential impacts by redistributing weights for proxy variables. As a main result, withlower future potential impacts observed in areas with higher precipit ation along the southern coast. Overall, the potential impacts increased for allreservoirs as we moved into the future, maintaining their relative rankings, yet showing no significant variability in the far future. Although the overallpattern o f potential impacts aligns with previous evaluations, reevaluation under similar conditions with di fferent spatial resolutions emphasizes thecritical role o f meteorological data spatial resolution in assessments. The results o f this study are expected to improve the credibility and accuracyformulation o f vulnerability employing more scienti fic predictions.
참고문헌 (28)
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