Russia’s Reassessment of the Korean Peninsula
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Russia is impatient for action on the Korean Peninsula, which it views through the lens of the world order established by its victory in 1945. Given Russian views of China’s sinocentric approach, the U.S. antibyungjin approach, and South Korea’s Eurasian Initiative, a hardline “turn to North Korea” is not surprising. As part of the “turn to the East,” this reflects three factors: historical national identity, geopolitical strategy, and geo-economic developmental plans for the Russian Far East. The result is increased encouragement for North Korea and increased pressure on South Korea with the implicit threat of tilting further to the North if recent policy, such as Park Geun-hye’s snubbing of Putin’s invitations, is not changed. While the North Koreans are playing Moscow off against Beijing, the northern triangle is more complicated than that. Russia’s “turn to China” and Pyongyang’s need for Beijing are likely to put Beijing in the driver’s seat as the next stages of diplomatic maneuvering unfold.
Abstract
Russia is impatient for action on the Korean Peninsula, which it views through the lens of the world order established by its victory in 1945. Given Russian views of China’s sinocentric approach, the U.S. antibyungjin approach, and South Korea’s Eurasian Initiative, a hardline “turn to North Korea” is not surprising. As part of the “turn to the East,” this reflects three factors: historical national identity, geopolitical strategy, and geo-economic developmental plans for the Russian Far East. The result is increased encouragement for North Korea and increased pressure on South Korea with the implicit threat of tilting further to the North if recent policy, such as Park Geun-hye’s snubbing of Putin’s invitations, is not changed. While the North Koreans are playing Moscow off against Beijing, the northern triangle is more complicated than that. Russia’s “turn to China” and Pyongyang’s need for Beijing are likely to put Beijing in the driver’s seat as the next stages of diplomatic maneuvering unfold.
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