First Mover Responses to North Korean Instability: The Intervention-Legitimacy Paradox
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North Korea’s immediate neighbors, particularly China, perceive a first-mover disadvantage in responding to North Korean instability. This paper seeks to project the path-dependent strategic considerations factoring into intervention in North Korean instability. Making specific reference to the political context and capacity for response on the part of China, the authors evaluate the benefits and costs to a first-mover in five scenarios of instability, including complex humanitarian emergency and collapse of state control, North Korea’s lashing out, infighting and protracted struggle, infighting followed by humanitarian crisis, and North Korean nuclear proliferation. The paper concludes with an analysis of the geopolitical context in 2015 and China’s evolving strategic interests for the Korean Peninsula.
Abstract
North Korea’s immediate neighbors, particularly China, perceive a first-mover disadvantage in responding to North Korean instability. This paper seeks to project the path-dependent strategic considerations factoring into intervention in North Korean instability. Making specific reference to the political context and capacity for response on the part of China, the authors evaluate the benefits and costs to a first-mover in five scenarios of instability, including complex humanitarian emergency and collapse of state control, North Korea’s lashing out, infighting and protracted struggle, infighting followed by humanitarian crisis, and North Korean nuclear proliferation. The paper concludes with an analysis of the geopolitical context in 2015 and China’s evolving strategic interests for the Korean Peninsula.
참고문헌 (28)
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