수출주도 경제성장 혹은 수입주도 경제성장? - ASEAN 주요국의 경우
Export-led, or Import-led Economic Growth?: Evidence from Major ASEAN Countries
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This paper examines the causal relationship between trade and economic growth for ASEAN-4 developing members such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines, using time-series data from 1980 to 2006. In contrast to most previous studies that focus mainly on exports, the paper specifies an augmented production function that explicitly tests for the effects of both exports and imports on economic growth. Following Toda and Yamamoto(1995) and Dolado and Lütkepohl(1996), this paper implements Granger causality tests by specifying an over-fitted level vector autoregression(VAR) model. The empirical results indicate export-led growth by all ASEAN-4 countries and import-led growth by Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia. Growth-led exports hypothesis is also supported by Indonesia and Thailand. This study's findings show that the imports play as much of a role as exports in stimulating economic growth in these countries. Our results convey an important policy message that the government should encourage imports that can carry advanced R&D technology and knowledge.
Abstract
This paper examines the causal relationship between trade and economic growth for ASEAN-4 developing members such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines, using time-series data from 1980 to 2006. In contrast to most previous studies that focus mainly on exports, the paper specifies an augmented production function that explicitly tests for the effects of both exports and imports on economic growth. Following Toda and Yamamoto(1995) and Dolado and Lütkepohl(1996), this paper implements Granger causality tests by specifying an over-fitted level vector autoregression(VAR) model. The empirical results indicate export-led growth by all ASEAN-4 countries and import-led growth by Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia. Growth-led exports hypothesis is also supported by Indonesia and Thailand. This study's findings show that the imports play as much of a role as exports in stimulating economic growth in these countries. Our results convey an important policy message that the government should encourage imports that can carry advanced R&D technology and knowledge.
참고문헌 (29)
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