IS EXPORT-LED INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT A VIABLE POLICY? SOME EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE
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This paper re-examines the time-series evidence on the relationship between exports and industrial development for eight newly-industrialized economies in light ofrecent breakthroughs in time-series analysis. Specifically, the investigation employs the time-series procedure of Toda and Yamamoto (1995) where many shortcomings ofthe traditional approaches (e.g., the Vector-Error-Correction approach) are overcome. The investigation reveals thatfor all but one ofthe economies where a policy ofexport-led growth was explicitly adopted, there is evidence indicating that current increases in exports produce future increases in industrial output. Such evidence is not found for the economies where the policy was not explicitly adopted. This suggests that for a country without an explicit strategy of export-expansion, it appears unlikely that export- expansion will spontaneously stimulate industrial development.
Abstract
This paper re-examines the time-series evidence on the relationship between exports and industrial development for eight newly-industrialized economies in light ofrecent breakthroughs in time-series analysis. Specifically, the investigation employs the time-series procedure of Toda and Yamamoto (1995) where many shortcomings ofthe traditional approaches (e.g., the Vector-Error-Correction approach) are overcome. The investigation reveals thatfor all but one ofthe economies where a policy ofexport-led growth was explicitly adopted, there is evidence indicating that current increases in exports produce future increases in industrial output. Such evidence is not found for the economies where the policy was not explicitly adopted. This suggests that for a country without an explicit strategy of export-expansion, it appears unlikely that export- expansion will spontaneously stimulate industrial development.