인도네시아 정당체계의 연속성과 정치균열의 문제:도시부문 설문조사를 바탕으로
Islam, Authoritarian Legacy, and Income in the Continuity of Indonesia’s Party System: Based on Urban Survey Data Jungug
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This study addresses the issue of the continuity in Indonesia’s party system with respect to Islam, authoritarian legacy and income, using the urban-based individual face-to-face survey data. The existing studies focus on the historical continuity of the Indonesian party system between the 1955 and 1999 democratic elections. Yet, this study deals with the continuity and discontinuity between the pre-transitional 1997 election and the transitional 1999 election. It finds that the effect of Islam is largely independent of the democratic transition: Islam-oriented voters under the authoritarian rule tend to remain in the Islamic camp even during and after the democratic transition, while most of the secular voters prior to the democratic transition continue to shun any Islamic parties during the democratization. The effect of authoritarian legacy is also found to be meaningful, even if not as sticky as Islam. Finally, the variable of income is significant. Contrary to the popular belief, the PDIP is not a party of the urban poor but the PPP is the urban poor’s favorite choice. This implies the linkage between poverty and political Islam.
Abstract
This study addresses the issue of the continuity in Indonesia’s party system with respect to Islam, authoritarian legacy and income, using the urban-based individual face-to-face survey data. The existing studies focus on the historical continuity of the Indonesian party system between the 1955 and 1999 democratic elections. Yet, this study deals with the continuity and discontinuity between the pre-transitional 1997 election and the transitional 1999 election. It finds that the effect of Islam is largely independent of the democratic transition: Islam-oriented voters under the authoritarian rule tend to remain in the Islamic camp even during and after the democratic transition, while most of the secular voters prior to the democratic transition continue to shun any Islamic parties during the democratization. The effect of authoritarian legacy is also found to be meaningful, even if not as sticky as Islam. Finally, the variable of income is significant. Contrary to the popular belief, the PDIP is not a party of the urban poor but the PPP is the urban poor’s favorite choice. This implies the linkage between poverty and political Islam.
참고문헌 (20)
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