한국의 해외직접투자와 동남아시아의 수출구조 고도화
Korean FDI and Export Upgrading in Southeast Asia
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본 논문에서는 도구변수에 의한 양방향 고정효과 패널분석기법을 이용하여 한국 제조업의 해외직접투자가 동남아시아 지역 국가들의 수출구조 변화에 미치는 영향을 분석한다. 이를 위해 ASEAN(5)국가들의 산업별 수출구조가 미국, EU, 일본과 얼마나 다른지를 나타내는 산업별 수출구조 비유사성 지수(Export Structure Dissimilarity Index)를 구성하고 그것이 한국 제조업의 해외직접투자에 의해 어떻게 변화하는지를 자본집약적 산업과 노동집약적 산업으로 나누어 고찰한다. 더 나아가서 수출대상국의 경제발전 수준에 따라 수출구조 고도화에 미치는 해외직접투자의 영향이 어떻게 달라지는지를 보기위해 수출대상국을 고소득 국가, 개발도상국 및 저소득 국가로 나누어 분석하고 비교한다. 추정결과는 동남아시아 국가들에 있어서 한국 제조업의 해외직접투자가 이 나라들의 수출구조를 개선하는 중요한 요인으로 된다는 것을 보여주었으며 그 효과는 자본집약적인 산업에서 보다 크고 유의한 것으로 나타났다. 수출대상국 별로는 개발도상국을 대상으로 한 수출보다는 고소득 국가와 저소득 국가들에 대한 수출에서 더 크게 평가되는 것으로, 노동집약적 산업에 있어서는 저소득 국가들에 대한 수출에서만 유의하게 작용을 하는 것으로 나타났다. 그리고 2008년 글로벌 금융위기는 자본집약적인 산업에 있어서 수출구조를 악화시키는 작용을 하였고 그 영향은 수출대상국의 소득수준이 높을수록 큰 것으로 나타났다(JEL: F14, F21).
Abstract
In this paper, we analyse the effects of Korean manufacturing outward FDI on the export upgrading in Southeast Asia using instrument variable regression model for panel data with two way fixed effects. For this purpose, we construct the Export Structure Dissimilarity Index (EDI) which shows how the sector-based export structure in ASEAN (5) to differ from that of the high income economies such as United States, European Union and Japan. And then, we examine how this index to be changed with the increase of Korean manufacturing FDI dividing the industries into labor and capital intensive sectors respectively. In addition, we divide the importing economies into three groups such as high income economies, developing economies and less developed economies in order to find out whether the effects of FDI on export upgrading vary across the economic development stage in importing economies, and compare the results by the group separately. Estimation results show that, Korean manufacturing FDI plays an important role in export structure upgrading in ASEAN (5) and its effect is larger and significant in labour intensive industries rather than capital intensive industries. We also find that the effects of FDI is the largest in the export to the high income economies while it is the smallest in the export to the developing economies. For the labour intensive industries, the effects of FDI on export upgrading was found only in export to the least developed economies. Finally, we found that the global financial crisis in 2008 acted negatively to export structure and the magnitude of it was the largest in high income importing economies (JEL: F14, F21).
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