ICT가 경제성장에 미치는 영향 분석 - BRICs 국가를 중심으로 -
The Impact of ICT on Economic Growth in BRICs
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본 연구는 1990년부터 2019년까지 BRICs (브라질, 러시아, 인도, 중국, 남아프리카 공화국) 국가의 연도별 데이터를 사용하여 정보통신 기술(ICT)이 이들 국가의 경제성장에 미치는 영향을 분석하고, 이를 통해 BRICs 국가의 경제성장 촉진 방안을 제시하고자 한다. 분석 결과에 의하면 ICT가 BRICs 경제성장을 촉진하는데 상당히 기여하고 있다는 점을 확인하였고, 특히 수출 부분의 증가가 경제성장에 크게 기여하는 것으로 나타났다. ICT 기술발전과 투자의 증가는 BRICs의 경제성장을 약 0.33% 증가시킨다. 다만, BRICs 국가가 수출주도형 경제로 수입은 경제성장에 미치는 효과는 크지 않으며, 자원채굴 형태의 외국인 직접투자도 경제성장에 크게 기여하지 않은 것으로 나타났다. BRICs의 경제성장을 더욱 촉진하기 위해 ICT 인프라를 구축하고 비대면 서비스를 고도화하고, 수출금융지원 및 수출보험 역할을 강화하는 수출확대 전략이 필요하다. 특히, ICT 첨단분야 그린 필드형 외국인 직접투자를 유치하기 위해 세제지원과 원스톱 서비스 허가 등의 정책요인을 제공하는 것이 필요하다.
Abstract
Purpose, Research design, data, methodology : This study analyze the impact of information and communication technology (ICT) on the economic growth of all of these countries using annual data from BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) countries for the period between 1990 and 2019 by employing panel estimation techniques including pooled ordinary least squares (POLS), dynamic panel estimation with fixed-effects and random-effects. Results : The results revealed that overall growth of the BRICs economy is slowing, but the degree to which ICT contributes to the overall economic growth is significant, and exports have a positive effect. The contribution of ICT increases the economic growth of BRICs by about 0.33%. However, we found that there was not a casual relationship between economic growth and import, and that foreign direct investment also had not a significant relationship with economic growth, but these are also important factors for economic growth, so it is necessary to provide expansion factors. Conclusions : Based on the analysis results, an export expansion strategy is needed to build ICT infrastructure, upgrade remote services, and strengthen the role of export financial support and export insurance to further promote BRICs' economic growth. In order to attract green field-type foreign direct investment, it is necessary to provide policy incentives such as tax break and one-stop service.
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