우리나라 무역수지 적자 요인에 대한 연구
A Study on the Factors of Korea's Trade Balance Deficit
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초록
2022년 우리나라 무역수지가 478억달러로 심각한 적자를 기록하였다. 우리나라 무역수지 적자에 영향을 미치는 요인으로 우리나라 실질GDP, 세계수입증가율, 수출입 단가, 환율, 교역조건등이 있다. 2013년부터 2023년까지우리나라 실질GDP 증가율과 우리나라 수입증가율의 관계, 세계수입증가율과 우리나라 수출증가율의 관계, 수출입 단가 및 환율, 교역조건과 무역수지와의 관계를 분석하며 최근 우리나라 무역수지 적자에 영향을 미친 요인들을 살펴보았다. 분석결과 수입단가, 환율, 교역조건이 무역수지와 강한 음(-)의 상관관계를 보였다. 본 논문의 분석 결과 우리나라 무역수지 적자에 영향을 미친 요인은 수출입 가격의 변화에 따른 환율 및 교역조건인 것으로 보인다. 각 요인간의 영향 분석을 위해 향후 연구에서는 보다 정밀한 추가 분석이 필요할 것이다.
Abstract
Purpose : This study is conducting an analysis of factors affecting Korea's trade deficit. Research design, data, methodology : The relationship between the trade balance and the factors affecting the trade balance is examined by analyzing the factors affecting the trade balance shown in previous studies and data related to the trade balance. Results : As a result of the analysis, the relationship between Korea's GDP growth rate and imports, and the relationship between world import growth rate and Korea's exports showed a weak correlation, which was not significant. However, the relationship between import and export unit price, exchange rate, trade terms and trade balance showed a strong correlation. Exchange rates and trade terms showed a strong positive (+) correlation with the trade balance, and import unit price and trade balance showed a strong negative (-) correlation. Conclusions : As a result of the analysis of this paper, it seems that the factors that influenced Korea's trade deficit are the exchange rates and terms of trade due to changes in import and export prices. However, a more precise and additional analysis will be needed.
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