태국 2021 코로나19 위기 속 출구 없는 정치대립과 사회구조적 난제

Abstract

This article identifies and evaluates the major trends in Thai politics, economy, and international relations in 2021. The year 2021 was marred by political battles over the government’s response to COVID-19 and the supply of vaccines. The spread of the delta mutation since April has led to the third wave, increasing the number of daily confirmed cases to 23,000 in August, and Thailand faced its worst situation since the outbreak of the virus. Although vaccinations began at the end of February, the government’s initial supply of vaccines was inadequate. Aimed at criticizing the government’s ability to manage the infectious disease, the opposition party’s non-confidence resolutions against Prime Minister Prayut and key ministers submitted to Congress in February and August 2021 were both rejected. The anti-government movement, which was centered on students demanding democratization since 2020, resumed in August despite the chaos caused by the COVID-19 crisis, and clashed with the government. The government began deliberations on constitutional amendments, showing a willingness to accept the demands of anti-government protesters. However, the government’s basic position on the current election system and reform of the royal family is quite passive. Thai politics, which celebrates the 15th anniversary of the 2006 coup against the Thaksin regime, still seems to be in a stalemate. Regarding the economy, the government strictly regulated economic activities in response to the rapid spread of the delta mutation, including lockdown measures in 29 provinces, including Bangkok and the metropolitan area. Consequently, the growth rate, which was progressing toward recovery, turned negative in the third quarter. As the spread subsided, the quarantine guidelines were eased and since November, Thailand has opened its borders in earnest, allowing vaccinated travelers to enter the country without quarantine. The decision was made to promote the tourism industry and bolster the slowing economy. However, with the emergence of the Omicron mutation, the country temporarily suspended quarantine-free entry two months after its opening. In foreign relations, China has reaffirmed its friendly relationship with Thailand through so-called “vaccine diplomacy” amid intensifying international conflicts between the U.S. and China. Thailand’s economy, which COVID-19 had dampened, is expected to recover rapidly, but it is not viewed optimistically in the mid to long term. With fundamental social problems, such as a shortage of labor force due to low birth rates and aging, which have yet to be resolved, industrial advancement policies, such as the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) development ambitiously proposed by the current government, have not made much progress in recent years. Additionally, economic polarization and income imbalances by region and across industrial sectors, which are the fundamental causes of political conflict, remain unresolved challenges. Therefore, regardless of the government’s political response in the short term, political instability is expected to persist in the mid to long term.