제주국제공항 수용한계능력시점에 관한 연구

Abstract

Jeju-do is not only Korea's representative tourist spot but also one of the globally recognized visited spots. Therefore the number of visitors to Jeju-do is increasing steadily every year. Because Jeju-do is an island, only air and ship transportation can be used to visit there, but most visitors to Jeju-do use air transportation. Accordingly, Jeju Airport is a main air traffic hub connecting Jeju-do to other regions, and to deal with the gradually increasing passengers and traffic volume, along with the recognition of a limit point in time of Jeju Airport and the provisions, an airport development or a new airport construction is necessary. In this study, the Box-Jenkins method is used for short-term forecasts and the Regression Analysis Model is used for long-term forecasts to predict the aviation demand for Jeju Airport. The Box-Jenkins' model has a high reliability for short-term demand forecasts as a method of analysis using past data. For long-term demand forecasts, the Regression Analysis Model which is one of the most common analysis models is used. Unlike models studied before, however, the independent variables affecting the demand of Jeju Airport are chosen by analyzing the characteristics of Jeju Airport in order to create a more reliable analysis model. The limit point in time of the capacity of the airport is studied with the result of demand forecasting for 30 years from now. the basic considerations for the airport development such as the Runway, apron and limit point in time of passenger terminal are studied to determine the limit point in time of the capacity of Jeju Airport.