비축대칭 3차원 모조 소용돌이를 이용한 열대저기압의 진로 및 강도예측
Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecast Using Asymmetric 3-Dimensional Bogus Vortex
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참고문헌
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초록
The bogussing method was further developed by incorporating the asymmetriccomponent into the symmetric bogus tropical cyclone of the Structure Adjustable BalancedVortex (SABV). The asymmetric component is separated from the disturbance field associatedwith the tropical cyclone by establishing local polar coordinates whose center is the location ofthe tropical cyclone. The relative importance of wave components in azimuthal direction wasevaluated, and only two or three wave components with large amplitude are added to the symmetriccomponents. Using the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF), initialized withthe asymmetric bogus vortex, the track and central pressure of tropical cyclones were predicted. Nine tropical cyclones, which passed over Korean peninsula during 2010~2012 wereselected to assess the effect of asymmetric components. Compared to the symmetric bogustropical cyclone, the track forecast error was reduced by about 18.9% and 17.4% for 48 hoursand 72 hours forecast, while the central pressure error was not improved significantly. Theresults suggest that the inclusion of asymmetric component is necessary to improve the trackforecast of tropical cyclones.
Abstract
The bogussing method was further developed by incorporating the asymmetriccomponent into the symmetric bogus tropical cyclone of the Structure Adjustable BalancedVortex (SABV). The asymmetric component is separated from the disturbance field associatedwith the tropical cyclone by establishing local polar coordinates whose center is the location ofthe tropical cyclone. The relative importance of wave components in azimuthal direction wasevaluated, and only two or three wave components with large amplitude are added to the symmetriccomponents. Using the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF), initialized withthe asymmetric bogus vortex, the track and central pressure of tropical cyclones were predicted. Nine tropical cyclones, which passed over Korean peninsula during 2010~2012 wereselected to assess the effect of asymmetric components. Compared to the symmetric bogustropical cyclone, the track forecast error was reduced by about 18.9% and 17.4% for 48 hoursand 72 hours forecast, while the central pressure error was not improved significantly. Theresults suggest that the inclusion of asymmetric component is necessary to improve the trackforecast of tropical cyclones.
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