A Study on the Improvement of Wave and Storm Surge Predictions Using a Forecasting Model and Parametric Model: a Case Study on Typhoon Chaba
2
조회
0
다운로드
1
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
High waves and storm surges due to tropical cyclones cause great damage in coastal areas; therefore, accurately predicting storm surges and high waves before a typhoon strike is crucial. Meteorological forcing is an important factor for predicting these catastrophic events. This study presents an improved methodology for determining accurate meteorological forcing. Typhoon Chaba, which caused serious damage to the south coast of South Korea in 2016, was selected as a case study. In this study, symmetric and asymmetric parametric vortex models based on the typhoon track forecasted by the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) were used to create meteorological forcing and were compared with those models based on the best track. The meteorological fields were also created by blending the meteorological field from the symmetric / asymmetric parametric vortex models based on the MPAS-forecasted typhoon track and the meteorological field generated by the forecasting model (MPAS). This meteorological forcing data was then used given to two-way coupled tide-surge-wave models: Advanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) and Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN). The modeled storm surges and waves correlated well with the observations and were comparable to those predicted using the best track. Based on our analysis, we propose using the parametric model with the MPAS-forecasted track, the meteorological field from the same forecasting model, and blending them to improve storm surge and wave prediction.
Abstract
High waves and storm surges due to tropical cyclones cause great damage in coastal areas; therefore, accurately predicting storm surges and high waves before a typhoon strike is crucial. Meteorological forcing is an important factor for predicting these catastrophic events. This study presents an improved methodology for determining accurate meteorological forcing. Typhoon Chaba, which caused serious damage to the south coast of South Korea in 2016, was selected as a case study. In this study, symmetric and asymmetric parametric vortex models based on the typhoon track forecasted by the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) were used to create meteorological forcing and were compared with those models based on the best track. The meteorological fields were also created by blending the meteorological field from the symmetric / asymmetric parametric vortex models based on the MPAS-forecasted typhoon track and the meteorological field generated by the forecasting model (MPAS). This meteorological forcing data was then used given to two-way coupled tide-surge-wave models: Advanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) and Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN). The modeled storm surges and waves correlated well with the observations and were comparable to those predicted using the best track. Based on our analysis, we propose using the parametric model with the MPAS-forecasted track, the meteorological field from the same forecasting model, and blending them to improve storm surge and wave prediction.
참고문헌 (23)
- Booij, N., "A third generation wave model for coastal regions", J. Geophys. Res, 104(C4), pp.7649~7666 (1999)
- Choi, B. H., "Wave-tidesurge coupled simulation for Typhoon Maemi", China Ocean Eng, 27(2), pp.141~158 (2013)
- Choi, B. H., "Simulation of the 1953 storm surge in the North Sea", Ocean Dyn, 68, pp.1759~1777 (2018)
- Dietrich, J. C., "A high-resolution coupled riverine flow, tide, wind, wind wave, and storm surge model for southern Louisiana and Mississippi. Part II: Synoptic description and analysis of hurricanes Katrina and Rita", Monthly Weather Review, 138, pp.378~404 (2010)
- Egbert, G. D., "Semi-diurnal and diurnal tidal dissipation from TOPEXP", OSEIDON altimetry, 2003, pp.30(17), 1907~
- Gao, J., "Development and Initial Evaluation of a Generalized Asymmetric Tropical Cyclone Vortex Model in ADCIRC", ADCIRC users group meeting, US Army Corps of Engineers (2013)
- Holland, G. J., "An analytic model of the wind and pressure profiles in hurricanes", Monthly Weather Review, 108(8), pp.1212~1218 (1980)
- Kang, J. -S., "Performance of KMPAS on typhoon track prediction with variable resolution grids focusing on Western Pacific Basin", Journal of Supercomputing Information, 5(2), pp.5~11 (2017)
- Estimation of wind and wave during typhoon based on mesoscale model, "Kawaguchi, K.", Technical Note of the Port and Airport Research Institute, ~, pp.Technical Note of the Port and Airport Research Institute No. 1169 (2007)
- Kerr, P. C., "U.S. IOOS coastal and ocean modeling testbed:Inter-model evaluation of tides, waves, and hurricane surge in the Gulf of Mexico", J. Geophys. Res. Ocean, 118, pp.5129~5172 (2013)
- Kim, Y., "Study on storm surge using parametric model with geographical characteristics", Water, 12, pp.2251~ (2020)
- Longuet-Higgins, M. S., "Radiation stresses in water waves; physical discussions, with applications", Deep Sea Research and Oceanographic Abstracts, 11(4), pp.529~562 (1964)
- Luettich, R., "Formulation and numerical implementation of the 2D", 3D ADCIRC. Finite element model version 44. XX, 2004
- "ADCIRC users manual version 53" (2018)[URL]
- Musinguzi, A., "Understanding hurricane storm surge generation and propagation using a forecasting model, forecast advisories and best track in a wind model, and observed data—Case study Hurricane Rita", J. Mar. Sci. Eng, 7, pp.77~ (2019)
- Park, S. -H., "A comparison of mesh refinement in the global MPAS-A and WRF models using an idealized normal-mode baroclinic wave simulation", Monthly Weather Review, 142, pp.3614~3634 (2014)
- Ris, R. C., "A third-generation wave model for coastal regions: 2. Verification", J. Geophys. Res. Ocean, 104, pp.7667~7681 (1999)
- Skamarock, W. C., "A multiscale nonhydrostatic atmospheric model using centroidal voronoi tessellations and C-grid staggering", Monthly Weather Review, 140, pp.3090~3105 (2012)
- Skamarock, W. C., "Atmospheric kinetic energy spectra from global high-resolution nonhydrostatic simulations", J. Atmos. Sci, 71, pp.4369~4381 (2014)
- Tanemoto, J., "Prediction of tropical cyclone induced wind field by using mesoscale model and JMA best track", The 8th Asia-Pacific Conference on Wind Engineering, pp.1362~1370 (2013)
- Xie, D., "Application of SWAN+ADCIRC to tide-surge and wave simulation in Gulf of Maine during Patriot’s Day storm", Water Sci. Eng, 9, pp.33~41 (2016)
- 육진희, "The Simulation of a Storm Surge and Wave due to Typhoon Sarah using an Integrally Coupled Tide-surge-wave Model of the Yellow and East China Seas", Ocean Science Journal, 50(4), pp.683~699 (2015), 한국해양과학기술원[DOI]
- Yuk, J. -H., "Prediction of typhoon-induced storm surge, waves and coastal inundation in the Suyeong River Area, South Korea: A case study during typhoon Chaba", J. Coast. Res, 91(SI), pp.156~160 (2019)