2013년 태풍에 대한 수치모델들의 강도 예측성 평가
Evaluation of the Intensity Predictability of the Numerical Models for Typhoons in 2013
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초록
An assessment of typhoon intensity predictability of numerical models was conductedto develop the typhoon intensity forecast guidance comparing with the RSMC-Tokyobest track data. Root mean square error, box plot analysis and time series of wind speed comparisonwere performed to evaluate the each model error level. One of noticeable fact is that allmodels have a trend of error increase as typhoon becomes stronger and the Global ForecastSystem showed the best performance among the models. In the detailed analysis in twotyphoon cases [Danas (1324) and Haiyan (1330)], GFS showed good performance in maximumwind speed and intensity trend in the best track, however it could not simulate well therapid intensity increasing period. On the other hand, ECMWF and Hurricane-WRF overestimatedthe typhoon intensity but simulated track trend well.
Abstract
An assessment of typhoon intensity predictability of numerical models was conductedto develop the typhoon intensity forecast guidance comparing with the RSMC-Tokyobest track data. Root mean square error, box plot analysis and time series of wind speed comparisonwere performed to evaluate the each model error level. One of noticeable fact is that allmodels have a trend of error increase as typhoon becomes stronger and the Global ForecastSystem showed the best performance among the models. In the detailed analysis in twotyphoon cases [Danas (1324) and Haiyan (1330)], GFS showed good performance in maximumwind speed and intensity trend in the best track, however it could not simulate well therapid intensity increasing period. On the other hand, ECMWF and Hurricane-WRF overestimatedthe typhoon intensity but simulated track trend well.
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