이동속도와 방향을 고려한 수치모델의 태풍진로 예측성 평가
Evaluation of the Numerical Models’ Typhoon Track Predictability Based on the Moving Speed and Direction
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초록
Evaluation of predictability of numerical models for tropical cyclone track was performedusing along-and cross-track component. The along-and cross-track bias were usefulindicators that show the numerical models predictability associated with cause of errors. Sinceforecast errors, standard deviation and consistency index of along-track component weregreater than those of cross-track component, there was some rooms for improvement in alongtrackcomponent. There was an overall slow bias. The most accurate model was JGSM for 24-hour forecast and ECMWF for 48~96-hour forecast in direct position error, along-track errorand cross-track error. ECMWF and GFS had a high variability for 24-hour forecast. The results of predictability by track type showed that most significant errors of tropical cyclone track forecast were caused by the failure to estimate the recurvature phenomenon.
Abstract
Evaluation of predictability of numerical models for tropical cyclone track was performedusing along-and cross-track component. The along-and cross-track bias were usefulindicators that show the numerical models predictability associated with cause of errors. Sinceforecast errors, standard deviation and consistency index of along-track component weregreater than those of cross-track component, there was some rooms for improvement in alongtrackcomponent. There was an overall slow bias. The most accurate model was JGSM for 24-hour forecast and ECMWF for 48~96-hour forecast in direct position error, along-track errorand cross-track error. ECMWF and GFS had a high variability for 24-hour forecast. The results of predictability by track type showed that most significant errors of tropical cyclone track forecast were caused by the failure to estimate the recurvature phenomenon.
참고문헌 (14)
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