동아시아 지역의 AOGCM 불확실성 평가 및 미래기후전망
An Uncertainty Assessment of AOGCM and Future Projection over East Asia
2
조회
0
다운로드
5
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
In this paper, future climate changes over East Asia(20°~50°N, 100°~150°E) are projected by anthropogenic forcing of greenhouse gases and aerosols using coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B1, A1B and A2 scenarios. Before projection future climate, model performance is assessed by the 20th Century (20C3M) experiment with bias, root Mean Square Error (RMSE), ratio of standard deviation, Taylor diagram analysis. The result of examination of the seasonal uncertainty of T2m and PCP shows that cold bias, lowered than that of observation, of T2m and wet bias, larger than that of observation, of PCP are found over East Asia. The largest wet bias is found in winter and the largest cold bias is found in summer. The RMSE of temperature in the annual mean increases and this trend happens in winter, too. That is, higher resolution model shows generally better performances in simulation T2m and PCP. Based on IPCC SRES scenarios, East Asia will experience warmer and wetter climate in the coming 21st century. It is predict the T2m increase in East Asia is larger than global mean temperature. As the latitude goes high, the warming over the continents of East Asia showed much more increase than that over the ocean. An enhanced land-sea contrast is proposed as a possible mechanism of the intensified Asian summer monsoon. But, the inter-model variability in PCP changes is large.
Abstract
In this paper, future climate changes over East Asia(20°~50°N, 100°~150°E) are projected by anthropogenic forcing of greenhouse gases and aerosols using coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B1, A1B and A2 scenarios. Before projection future climate, model performance is assessed by the 20th Century (20C3M) experiment with bias, root Mean Square Error (RMSE), ratio of standard deviation, Taylor diagram analysis. The result of examination of the seasonal uncertainty of T2m and PCP shows that cold bias, lowered than that of observation, of T2m and wet bias, larger than that of observation, of PCP are found over East Asia. The largest wet bias is found in winter and the largest cold bias is found in summer. The RMSE of temperature in the annual mean increases and this trend happens in winter, too. That is, higher resolution model shows generally better performances in simulation T2m and PCP. Based on IPCC SRES scenarios, East Asia will experience warmer and wetter climate in the coming 21st century. It is predict the T2m increase in East Asia is larger than global mean temperature. As the latitude goes high, the warming over the continents of East Asia showed much more increase than that over the ocean. An enhanced land-sea contrast is proposed as a possible mechanism of the intensified Asian summer monsoon. But, the inter-model variability in PCP changes is large.
참고문헌 (28)
- 기후변화협약대응 지역기후시나리오 활용기술 개발(Ⅲ). 국립기상연구소 연구보고서, "국립기상연구소", 559~, pp.MR070C70 (2007)
- 차유미, "ECHO-G", S를 활용한 미래 동아시아 기후 전망, 2007, pp.17(1), 55~68[DOI]
- Boer, G.J, "Second-order space-time climate difference statistics", Climate Dyn, 17, pp.213~218 (2001)
- Dai, A., "Ensemble simulation of twenty-first century climate changes: Business-as-usual versus CO2 stabilization", Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc, 82, pp.2377~2388 (2001)
- Gillett, N.P., "Detecting anthropogenic influence with a multi-model ensemble", Geophys. Res. Lett, 29, pp.13~ (2002)
- Giorgi, F., "Calculation of Average, Uncertainty Range, and Reliability of Regional Climate Changes from AOGCM Simulations via the “Reliability Ensemble Averaging”(REA) Method", J. Climate, 15, pp.1141~1158 (2002)
- Giorgi, F., "Mean, interannual variability and trends in a regional climate change experiment over Europe. I: Present-day climate(1961-1990)", Climate Dyn, 22, pp.733~756 (2004)
- X. Bi, "Mean, interannual variability and trends in a regional climate change experiment over Europe. II: climate change scenarios(2071-2100)", Climate Dyn, pp.839~858 (2004)
- IPCC, "Climate Change 2007: The Physical Scientific Basis, Working group Ⅰcontribution to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, Summary for Policymakers", pp.996~ (2007), Cambridge University Press
- Jones, P. D., "Hemispheric surface air temperature variations: a reanalysis and an update to 1993", J. Climate, 7, pp.1794~1802 (1994)
- Jones, P.D., "Hemispheric and large- scale surface air temperature variations: An extensive revision and an update to 2001", J. Climate, pp.206~223 (2003)
- Joseph R, "ENSO evolution and teleconnections in IPCC’s 20th century climate simulations: Realistic representation?", J. Climate, 19, pp.4360~4377 (2006)
- Kitoh, A, "Changes in onset and withdrawal of the East Asian summer rainy season by multi-model global warming experiments", J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 84, pp.247~258 (2006)
- Knutti, R., "Constraining climate sensitivity from the seasonal cycle in surface temperature", J. Clim, 19, pp.4224~4233 (2006)
- Kripalani, R.H., "Response of the East Asian summer monsoon to doubled atmospheric CO2: Coupled climate model simulations and projections under IPCC AR4", Theor. Appl. Climatol, 87, pp.1~28 (2006)
- Lal, M., "of the present-day climate simulation over Asia in selected coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models", J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 78, pp.871~879 (2000)
- Lal, M., "Future climate change scenarios for Asia as inferred from selected coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models", J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 79, pp.219~227 (2001)
- Legutke, S., "The Hamburg atmosphere-ocean coupled circulation model ECHO-G", Cerman Climate Computer Centre(DKRZ) Tech. Rep, 18, pp.62~ (1999)
- Min, S.K., "Future projections of East Asian climate change from multi-AOGCM ensembles of IPCC SRES scenario simulations", J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 82, pp.1187~1211 (2004)
- Murphy, J., "A system for detecting interviewer falsification", resented at the American Association of Public Opinion Research Annual Meeting, ~ (2004)
- Oh, J.-H., "Regional climate simulation for Korea using dynamic downscaling and statistical adjustment", J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 82, pp.1629~1643 (2004)
- Piani, C., "Constraints on climate change from a multi-thousand member ensemble of simulations", Geophys. Res. Lett, 32, pp.L23825~ (2005)
- The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM4: Model description and simulation of present-day climate, "Roeckner, E.", Max Plank Institute for Meteorology, ~, pp.MPI Rep., No. 218 (1996)
- Shukla, J., "Climate model fi delity and projections of climate change", Geophys. Res. Lett, 33, pp.L07702~ (2006)
- The OASIS Coupler User Guide, "Valcke, S.", CERFACS, 77~, pp.Version 2.4. Technical Report TR (2000), CMGC[DOI]
- The Hamburg Ocean Primitive Equation Model, "Wolff, J. -O.", Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum, 98~, pp.DKRZ Technical Report, No. 13 (1997)
- Xie, P., "Global Precipitation: A 17- year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model outputs", Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc, 78, pp.2539~2558 (1997)
- Taylor, K.E., "Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram", J. Geophys. Res, 106, pp.7183~7192 (2001)