기후모델(HadGEM2-AO)의 대표농도경로(RCP) 시나리오에 따른 21세기 말 육지 물순환 및 대륙별 하천유출량 변화 추정
Estimates of the Water Cycle and River Discharge Change over the Global Land at the End of 21st Century Based on RCP Scenarios of HadGEM2-AO Climate Model
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This study investigates the projections of water cycle, budget and river dischargeover land in the world at the end of twenty-first century simulated by atmosphere-ocean climatemodel of Hadley Centre (HadGEM2-AO) and total runoff integrating pathways (TRIP)based on the RCP scenario. Firstly, to validate the HadGEM2-AO hydrology, the surface waterstates were evaluated for the present period using precipitation, evaporation, runoff and riverdischarge. Although this model underestimates the annual precipitation about 0.4 mm mon−1,evaporation 3.7 mm mon−1, total runoff 1.6 mm mon−1 and river discharge 8.6% than observationand reanalysis data, it has good water balance in terms of inflow and outflow at surface. Inother words, it indicates the −0.3 mm mon−1 of water storage (P-E-R) compared with ERA40showing −2.4 mm mon−1 for the present hydrological climate. At the end of the twenty-firstcentury, annual mean precipitation may decrease in heavy rainfall region, such as northern partof South America, central Africa and eastern of North America, but for increase over the TropicalWestern Pacific and East Asian region. Also it can generally increase in high latitudesinland of the Northern Hemisphere. Spatial patterns of annual evaporation and runoff are similarto that of precipitation. And river discharge tends to increase over all continents except forSouth America including Amazon Basin, due to increased runoff. Overall, HadGEM2-AOprospects that water budget for the future will globally have negative signal (−8.0~−0.3% ofchange rate) in all RCP scenarios indicating drier phase than the present climate over land.
Abstract
This study investigates the projections of water cycle, budget and river dischargeover land in the world at the end of twenty-first century simulated by atmosphere-ocean climatemodel of Hadley Centre (HadGEM2-AO) and total runoff integrating pathways (TRIP)based on the RCP scenario. Firstly, to validate the HadGEM2-AO hydrology, the surface waterstates were evaluated for the present period using precipitation, evaporation, runoff and riverdischarge. Although this model underestimates the annual precipitation about 0.4 mm mon−1,evaporation 3.7 mm mon−1, total runoff 1.6 mm mon−1 and river discharge 8.6% than observationand reanalysis data, it has good water balance in terms of inflow and outflow at surface. Inother words, it indicates the −0.3 mm mon−1 of water storage (P-E-R) compared with ERA40showing −2.4 mm mon−1 for the present hydrological climate. At the end of the twenty-firstcentury, annual mean precipitation may decrease in heavy rainfall region, such as northern partof South America, central Africa and eastern of North America, but for increase over the TropicalWestern Pacific and East Asian region. Also it can generally increase in high latitudesinland of the Northern Hemisphere. Spatial patterns of annual evaporation and runoff are similarto that of precipitation. And river discharge tends to increase over all continents except forSouth America including Amazon Basin, due to increased runoff. Overall, HadGEM2-AOprospects that water budget for the future will globally have negative signal (−8.0~−0.3% ofchange rate) in all RCP scenarios indicating drier phase than the present climate over land.
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