기상청 현업 모형(UM)과 1차원 난류모형(PAFOG)의 접합시스템 개발 및 검증
Development and Validation of the Coupled System of Unified Model (UM) and PArameterized FOG (PAFOG)
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초록
As an attempt to improve fog predictability at Incheon International Airport (IIA)we couple the 3D weather forecasting model currently operational in Korea MeteorologicalAdministration (regional Unified Model, UM_RE) with a 1D turbulence model (PAFOG). Thecoupling is done by extracting the meteorological data from the 3D model and properly insertingthem in the PAFOG model as initial conditions and external forcing. The initial conditionsinclude surface temperature, 2 m temperature and dew point temperature, geostrophic wind at850 hPa and vertical profiles of temperature and dew point temperature. Moisture and temperatureadvections are included as external forcing and updated every hr. To validate the performanceof the coupled system, simulation results of the coupled system are compared to thoseof the 3D model alone for the 22 sea fog cases observed over the Yellow Sea. Three statisticalindices, i.e., Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), linear correlation coefficient (R) and CriticalSuccess Index (CSI), are examined, and they all indicate that the coupled system performs betterthan the 3D model alone. These are certainly promising results but more improvement isrequired before the coupled system can actually be used as an operational fog forecastingmodel. For the RMSE, R, and CSI values for the coupled system are still not good enough foroperational fog forecast.
Abstract
As an attempt to improve fog predictability at Incheon International Airport (IIA)we couple the 3D weather forecasting model currently operational in Korea MeteorologicalAdministration (regional Unified Model, UM_RE) with a 1D turbulence model (PAFOG). Thecoupling is done by extracting the meteorological data from the 3D model and properly insertingthem in the PAFOG model as initial conditions and external forcing. The initial conditionsinclude surface temperature, 2 m temperature and dew point temperature, geostrophic wind at850 hPa and vertical profiles of temperature and dew point temperature. Moisture and temperatureadvections are included as external forcing and updated every hr. To validate the performanceof the coupled system, simulation results of the coupled system are compared to thoseof the 3D model alone for the 22 sea fog cases observed over the Yellow Sea. Three statisticalindices, i.e., Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), linear correlation coefficient (R) and CriticalSuccess Index (CSI), are examined, and they all indicate that the coupled system performs betterthan the 3D model alone. These are certainly promising results but more improvement isrequired before the coupled system can actually be used as an operational fog forecastingmodel. For the RMSE, R, and CSI values for the coupled system are still not good enough foroperational fog forecast.
참고문헌 (15)
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