기상청 고해상도 국지 앙상블 예측 시스템 구축 및 성능 검증
Development and Evaluation of the High Resolution Limited Area Ensemble Prediction System in the Korea Meteorological Administration
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참고문헌
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초록
Predicting the location and intensity of precipitation still remains a main issue innumerical weather prediction (NWP). Resolution is a very important component of precipitationforecasts in NWP. Compared with a lower resolution model, a higher resolution model canpredict small scale (i.e., storm scale) precipitation and depict convection structures more precisely. In addition, an ensemble technique can be used to improve the precipitation forecastbecause it can estimate uncertainties associated with forecasts. Therefore, NWP using both ahigher resolution model and ensemble technique is expected to represent inherent uncertaintiesof convective scale motion better and lead to improved forecasts. In this study, the limited areaensemble prediction system for the convective-scale (i.e., high resolution) operational UnifiedModel (UM) in Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) was developed and evaluated forthe ensemble forecasts during August 2012. The model domain covers the limited area over theKorean Peninsula. The high resolution limited area ensemble prediction system developedshowed good skill in predicting precipitation, wind, and temperature at the surface as well asmeteorological variables at 500 and 850 hPa. To investigate which combination of horizontalresolution and ensemble member is most skillful, the system was run with three different horizontalresolutions (1.5, 2, and 3 km) and ensemble members (8, 12, and 16), and the forecastsfrom the experiments were evaluated. To assess the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF)skill of the system, the precipitation forecasts for two heavy rainfall cases during the studyperiod were analyzed using the Fractions Skill Score (FSS) and Probability Matching (PM)method. The PM method was effective in representing the intensity of precipitation and theFSS was effective in verifying the precipitation forecast for the high resolution limited areaensemble prediction system in KMA.
Abstract
Predicting the location and intensity of precipitation still remains a main issue innumerical weather prediction (NWP). Resolution is a very important component of precipitationforecasts in NWP. Compared with a lower resolution model, a higher resolution model canpredict small scale (i.e., storm scale) precipitation and depict convection structures more precisely. In addition, an ensemble technique can be used to improve the precipitation forecastbecause it can estimate uncertainties associated with forecasts. Therefore, NWP using both ahigher resolution model and ensemble technique is expected to represent inherent uncertaintiesof convective scale motion better and lead to improved forecasts. In this study, the limited areaensemble prediction system for the convective-scale (i.e., high resolution) operational UnifiedModel (UM) in Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) was developed and evaluated forthe ensemble forecasts during August 2012. The model domain covers the limited area over theKorean Peninsula. The high resolution limited area ensemble prediction system developedshowed good skill in predicting precipitation, wind, and temperature at the surface as well asmeteorological variables at 500 and 850 hPa. To investigate which combination of horizontalresolution and ensemble member is most skillful, the system was run with three different horizontalresolutions (1.5, 2, and 3 km) and ensemble members (8, 12, and 16), and the forecastsfrom the experiments were evaluated. To assess the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF)skill of the system, the precipitation forecasts for two heavy rainfall cases during the studyperiod were analyzed using the Fractions Skill Score (FSS) and Probability Matching (PM)method. The PM method was effective in representing the intensity of precipitation and theFSS was effective in verifying the precipitation forecast for the high resolution limited areaensemble prediction system in KMA.
참고문헌 (43)
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